การลงทุนในยูเรเนียม: พลังงานนิวเคลียร์คือคำตอบสำหรับการแก้ปัญหาพลังงานหรือไม่?

หุ่นยนต์จะขับรถให้เราในอนาคตได้หรือไม่? พวกมันจะสามารถทำการผ่าตัดด้วยความแม่นยำสูงได้หรือไม่? โทรศัพท์มือถือ, รถยนต์ หรือเครื่องใช้ไฟฟ้าภายในบ้านจะมีความก้าวหน้ามากขึ้นหรือไม่? ปัญญาประดิษฐ์ (AI) จะช่วยเราในชีวิตประจำวันได้หรือไม่? ทุกข้อสมมติฐานเหล่านี้อาจช่วยปรับปรุงอนาคตของเรา แต่เพื่อให้มันเป็นจริง จำเป็นต้องมีพลังงานจำนวนมาก ซึ่งเป็นความต้องการพื้นฐานที่ทั้งพลังงานฟอสซิลซึ่งถูกจำกัดด้วยข้อบังคับทางการเมืองและสิ่งแวดล้อม รวมถึงพลังงานทดแทนที่มีประสิทธิภาพต่ำไม่สามารถตอบสนองได้

เพื่อแก้ไขปัญหานี้ พลังงานชนิดใหม่กำลังได้รับความนิยมเพิ่มขึ้นในหมู่บริษัทต่าง ๆ นั่นคือ พลังงานนิวเคลียร์ ในช่วงไม่กี่เดือนที่ผ่านมา บริษัทขนาดใหญ่ เช่น Google, Amazon, และ Microsoft ได้ลงนามในข้อตกลงกับโรงไฟฟ้านิวเคลียร์ต่าง ๆ เพื่อใช้พลังงานประเภทนี้ในการขับเคลื่อนศูนย์ข้อมูลของพวกเขา ซึ่งเป็นโครงสร้างพื้นฐานสำคัญสำหรับการพัฒนาปัญญาประดิษฐ์ (AI) นอกจากนี้ ตามรายงานของ หน่วยงานพลังงานระหว่างประเทศ (IEA) ในปีนี้อาจทำลายสถิติโลกในการผลิตไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานนิวเคลียร์โดยผลิตได้ถึง 2,900 TWh ซึ่งคิดเป็นเกือบ 10% ของการผลิตไฟฟ้าทั่วโลก

เบื้องหลังพลังงานนี้คือ วัตถุดิบ ที่กำลังมีความต้องการเพิ่มขึ้น เนื่องจากศูนย์ข้อมูลและโซลูชั่นปัญญาประดิษฐ์มีบทบาทที่โดดเด่นมากขึ้น นั่นคือ ยูเรเนียม วัตถุดิบนี้เป็นสิ่งจำเป็นในการผลิตพลังงานนิวเคลียร์ ซึ่งราคาได้พุ่งสูงขึ้นในช่วงห้าปีที่ผ่านมา หลังจากช่วงเวลาของความเสถียร ราคาของยูเรเนียมได้แตะระดับมากกว่า 100 ดอลลาร์ในต้นปี 2024 อย่างไรก็ตาม ตั้งแต่นั้นมา ราคาของมันเริ่มลดลง แต่ยังคงมีศักยภาพสูงที่อาจน่าสนใจสำหรับนักลงทุน เนื่องจากบทบาทสำคัญในหลายอุตสาหกรรมที่ล้ำสมัย แต่เราจะลงทุนในยูเรเนียมได้อย่างไร? และเราควรคาดหวังอะไรจากมัน?

2025, a bad start for the uranium price

Since the beginning of 2024, when it surpassed $100, the price of uranium has dropped by more than a third. Moreover, so far this year, it has not reversed the trend and has fallen by approximately 11% in these first few months. Among the reasons for the drop in its price, we can highlight three factors. 

On the one hand, Deepseek 's emergence triggered a wave of selling in the sector, as the market priced in lower energy use to train AI models. Just over a year ago, uranium was booming as more countries moved to reopen their nuclear reactors, and electricity demand was expected to increase with the development of AI and data centers.

Another factor explaining the decline in uranium prices is the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada, one of the world's leading producers of nuclear fuel. The United States is the world's largest consumer of uranium, with 94 nuclear reactors supplying tens of millions of homes and offices, but most of the material comes from foreign imports. In fact, US nuclear power relies on Canada for more than a quarter of its uranium, more than any other source. Trump initially threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian uranium and other energy products, before lowering that figure to 10%, but this is still causing the market to price in lower demand for it.

Furthermore, there are also talks on a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine, raising the possibility of easing sanctions on Russian uranium production and, therefore, the possibility of increased supply, which would reduce the price of uranium.

The blackout in Spain offers some lessons

On Monday, April 28, Spain and Portugal, and a small part of France, suffered what could become known as the first major blackout of the renewable energy era. More than 50 million people were left without electricity, and power did not return for several hours.

Was it a cyberattack? A sudden surge of solar power on a sunny day? For now, the former seems unlikely. As for the latter, while events like this are extremely rare, they are not impossible. Learning how to prevent them from occurring, or at least minimize their impact, is important as global electricity demand skyrockets and renewables become an ever-larger part of the mix. 

Spain and Portugal operated their grids with a highly weather-dependent generation mix, accounting for over 75% of output. Few of the older gas, nuclear, or hydropower generators, which are key to ensuring a stable grid, were operational. This could be the case in other countries around the world, given that most countries are adopting solar and wind power, although not with the same intensity.

Grids dominated by solar and wind power aren't bad in and of themselves, but they tend to be more fragile than those dominated by traditional generation. Of course, they have one major advantage: they don't pollute. However, policymakers should ensure that the right mix is ​​maintained in the system. This likely means investing in more gas-fired power plants as backups and keeping nuclear facilities running. 

The growing demand for electricity requires a better grid, and if we insist on using wind and solar power at high levels, we also need a different type of grid, which entails significant investments of money and time. But there is one way to save: nuclear power.

Nuclear power plants operate off the grid, can be located where power is really needed, and require minimal space. Although the blackout in Spain in recent days has put nuclear energy back at the center of the energy debate, boosting the price of uranium stocks it was rumors from the White House that it was considering accelerating the development of nuclear reactors that drove their share price higher.

We believe there is a significant energy gap in the world, projected to close by the end of the decade. As electric vehicles and AI gain momentum, consuming energy in data centers, there is a possibility that the power grid will not be able to meet energy demand in the coming years.

Given this, we believe that nuclear energy is truly the only clean energy technology that produces stable, large-scale production.

How to invest in uranium?

Unlike other commodities, such as gold or silver, it is impossible to invest in physical uranium due to its radioactive nature. However, there are other options for investing in this metal: uranium company stocks and ETFs.

Uranium company shares

Within the market, we can find several uranium companies in which we can invest. These are some of the most notable: 

Cameco

One of the most prominent companies in the uranium market is Cameco. The Canadian company stands out due to its strong uranium production capacity and market share. Cameco's strategic contracts to sell 220 million pounds of uranium to 41 global customers, with a significant focus on Western markets, reinforce its upside potential. The company's solid financial results, including a significant increase in EBITDA and a robust balance sheet, highlight its strong financial health and growth prospects. Despite geopolitical and regulatory risks, Cameco's leadership in uranium production and the promising outlook for nuclear energy support the company's growth prospects.

Nuscale

Nuscale is another great alternative. After a stellar 2024, in which its stock price increased 5.5x, its 2025 performance has underperformed not only the nuclear energy sector but also the S&P 500 year to date. The primary reasons for the decline include uncertainties regarding the previously projected high energy demand from data centers and a massive increase in losses in 2024. However, we believe there is potential for a significant recovery in 2025. 

Oklo

Among the companies in the sector with the greatest potential, we might consider Oklo. It's a development-stage company focused on the design, permitting, and implementation of "power plants," a small nuclear reactor concept it pioneered. As a development-stage company at this time, the company is investing in general and administrative expenses and R&D, but there's no product to speak of yet, although its stock price has soared in recent days following the White House's announcement that it will support the nuclear reactor sector.

Uranium ETFs

Beyond direct investment in company stocks, we can also invest in uranium in a more diversified way by acquiring ETFs that replicate the performance of companies in the sector.

Uranium (URNU.DE)

This alternative offers investors access to a wide range of companies involved in uranium mining and nuclear component production, including those involved in the extraction, refining, exploration, and manufacturing of equipment for the uranium and nuclear industries. Since the beginning of the year, its performance has fallen by 4.77%. 

Uranium and Nuclear Technology (NUKL.DE)

It provides exposure to the performance of companies involved in the nuclear energy industry, from reactor manufacturers to uranium miners. Since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by 11.47%. 

Uranium miners (U3O8.DE)

This uranium ETF seeks to offer investors a way to invest in the growth of nuclear energy through exposure to uranium mining companies. This includes companies involved in the uranium industry, encompassing mining, exploration, development, and production of uranium. The ETF can also invest in entities that hold physical uranium. It has fallen 24% since the beginning of the year.

Junior Uranium miners (U8NJ.DE)

It provides exposure to small- and mid-cap uranium mining companies that offer the potential for outperformance in the near future. Its share price has fallen by 20% since January 1.