Silver rallies 3% 📈 A return of bullish momentum in precious metals?

Silver (SILVER) is up more than 3% today, pushing above $83 per ounce. The long-term fundamentals for the metal still look constructive, and the U.S. dollar may be heading into a tougher period. Yesterday, Donald Trump argued that the U.S. should maintain the lowest interest rates in the world, and claimed the dollar has been “manipulated” for years, keeping it overly strong.

Several supportive themes remain in play: tight silver inventories in London, geopolitics (Trump threatened to deploy a second aircraft carrier closer to Iran), and renewed speculation about aggressive U.S. rate cuts. Demand for physical metals is rising despite expectations of a slowdown in industrial and jewelry-related consumption. The Silver Institute forecasts that investment in physical silver will increase by 20% to a three-year high near 227 million ounces, following three consecutive years of declines.

Industrial demand is expected to fall by 2% to around 650 million ounces, the lowest level in four years. The biggest drag is likely to come from the solar (photovoltaics) segment, where manufacturers are increasingly shifting toward substitutes for expensive silver-based components. Even so, the ongoing electrification of the global economy should continue to support broader industrial demand into the end of the decade - with data centers and the automotive sector potentially offsetting part of the PV weakness.
On the jewelry side, demand is projected to decline meaningfully this year by nearly 10% year over year, reaching the lowest level in six years. The drop is expected to be driven mainly by India, though it may be partially cushioned by China, where the Silver Institute notes rising interest in gold-plated silver jewelry.
Looking into 2026, total demand is still expected to exceed supply, even as supply is set to hit a record 1.05 billion ounces (up 1.5% y/y). The projected market deficit is around 67 million ounces.

In a dedicated report, the Heraeus group emphasized that elevated volatility across metals is likely to persist amid growing speculation both in the West and in China. They also noted that ETFs have recently absorbed a meaningful portion of the selling pressure - suggesting retail investors’ appetite to buy silver remains firm. Investment demand for gold has also been rising: gold prices are up more than 500% over the past decade, while the U.S. dollar index is hovering near 11-year lows.

SILVER (D1)

Silver is currently testing the 50-session exponential moving average, which often acts as a symbolic boundary between bearish and bullish momentum. A sustained break above $92/oz could open the door toward $100/oz, consistent with an inverted head-and-shoulders setup. On the downside, a drop below $80/oz would suggest sellers are still in control and could continue to cap upside attempts.

Source: xStation5

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