- Nasdaq 100 futures gained over 1% following the worst weekly sell-off for the index since April 2025.
- China Q3 GDP grew by 4.5% YoY, beating the 4.4% consensus forecast.
- Brent crude pulled back to around 108 USD after approaching 112 USD amid stabilising Persian Gulf oil flows.
- Upcoming quarterly earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Meta, and IBM will test market confidence in the artificial intelligence sector.
- Nasdaq 100 futures gained over 1% following the worst weekly sell-off for the index since April 2025.
- China Q3 GDP grew by 4.5% YoY, beating the 4.4% consensus forecast.
- Brent crude pulled back to around 108 USD after approaching 112 USD amid stabilising Persian Gulf oil flows.
- Upcoming quarterly earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Meta, and IBM will test market confidence in the artificial intelligence sector.
Last week was the worst for the Nasdaq since April 2025, when the highest tariffs on exports to the United States in over 100 years were announced.
Figure 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 Companies Above 50-Day Moving Average (2024 - 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 19.10.2026
Today, we are seeing a slight improvement in market sentiment. Nasdaq 100 futures are up by more than 1%, and the S&P 500 has gained around 0.7%. Crude oil is retreating from five-month highs, whilst US bond yields remain substantially below their recent peaks.
Ahead of us are quarterly results from Netflix, Tesla, Meta, and IBM, which will verify whether last week's sell-off in tech stocks was an overreaction or a warning signal for the entire "AI Play" theme.
Figure 2: Dashboard for Tesla (2024 - 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 19.10.2026
🌏 Key Macroeconomic Releases
Monday
China
- Q3 GDP grew by 4.5% YoY (consensus: 4.4%, previous: 4.3%). On a quarterly basis, growth reached 1.2% (consensus: 1.1%).
- Industrial production rose by 5.5% YoY in September (consensus: 5.4%, previous: 5.2%).
- Retail sales accelerated to 1.1% YoY, comfortably above consensus (0.5%) and the previous reading (0.4%).
- Fixed asset investment fell by 7.2% YTD YoY (consensus: -7.3%).
- The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.3%.
- House prices continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace (-2.8% YoY vs -3.0%).
📆 Economic Calendar
Monday
- Canada: CPI Inflation for September
- Time: 1:30 PM
- Consensus: 3.2%
- Previous: 3.0%
Tuesday
- UK: Unemployment Rate (3 months to August)
- Time: 7:00 AM
- Consensus: 5.0%
- Previous: 4.9%
- US: Building Permits for September
- Time: 1:30 PM
- Consensus: 1.40m
- Previous: 1.403m
📆 Economic Calendar (Rest of the Week)
Tuesday, 20 October
- 07:00 AM UK – Unemployment Rate (ILO)
Wednesday, 21 October
- 07:00 AM UK – CPI Inflation YoY
- 03:30 PM US – DOE Crude Oil Inventories (Change)
Thursday, 22 October
- 01:30 PM US – Initial Jobless Claims
- 03:30 PM US – EIA Natural Gas Storage (Change)
Friday, 23 October
- 12:30 AM Japan – CPI Inflation YoY
- 09:00 AM Eurozone – Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI
- 02:45 PM US – Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI
- 03:00 PM US – University of Michigan Sentiment (Preliminary)
🗂️ Corporate Earnings Releases
- Fifth Third Bancorp ($FITB.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
- Cleveland-Cliffs ($CLF.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics ($STLD.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
- Zions Bancorporation ($ZION.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
- W. R. Berkley ($WRB.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
- Western Alliance Bancorporation ($WAL.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
🗂️ Corporate Earnings Releases (Rest of the Week)
Tuesday: Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, General Electric, RTX, 3M, United Airlines, MSCI, Capital One, General Motors, Northrop Grumman.
Wednesday: Tesla, Meta Platforms, IBM, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, NextEra Energy, SAP, AT&T, QuantumScape, Abbott, Moody's, Philip Morris, Thermo Fisher, Southwest Airlines, Elevance Health.
Thursday: Spotify, Beyond Meat, Western Digital, Procter & Gamble, Lockheed Martin, Nokia, Honeywell, Blackstone, Deckers, Nasdaq, American Airlines, Newmont, Comfort Systems, Comcast, Union Pacific.
Friday: American Express, Schlumberger, Booz Allen Hamilton, Rithm Capital, Eni.
3 Markets to Watch
- OIL – Brent crude approached $112 on Friday before retreating by nearly 2% on Monday to around $108. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that oil flows from the Persian Gulf have returned to approximately 80% of pre-conflict levels, although refined product supplies remain constrained. Meanwhile, regional incidents persist, including a damaged tanker in the Persian Gulf and a downed helicopter near the Yemen border, maintaining a risk premium.
- TNOTE – Following a drop of around 17 bps last week (the sharpest decline since April 2025, accompanying a 5.5% sell-off in the Nasdaq 100), bond yields settled near 5.06%. Treasury bonds appear to be resuming their role as a safe haven in the event of further disruption surrounding AI spending.
- US100 – After its worst week since the April tariff sell-off, focus shifts to quarterly earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Meta, and IBM. These results will determine whether last week's concerns over AI capital expenditure financing (including developments around CoreWeave and Anthropic) were a temporary wobble or the beginning of a broader correction in the artificial intelligence trade.
—
Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
Chart of the Day: What’s next for tech stocks after the deepest sell-off since April 2025? (19.10.2026)
Morning Wrap: Nasdaq rebounds ahead of Mag7 earnings, bonds regain favour, oil falls from peak (19.10.2026)
Sell-off in the semiconductor market 📉🖥️
TSMC breaks records once again driven by the AI boom
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.