Earlier today, we received the final PMI data for Australia for March. The report sent a clear signal of deteriorating economic conditions. The reading fell back into contraction territory (<50) at 49.8 (from 51.0 in February). This marks the first decline in five months. The details of the report confirm a weak picture: new orders fell for the first time in several months, output declined again, and employment also moved into negative territory, indicating a broad slowdown in activity. At the same time, the key driver of the slowdown is not only domestic demand but also cost pressure and the energy crisis. Input prices rose to the highest levels in several years due to higher oil prices and transport costs. This creates a stagflationary environment for Australia — slowing growth alongside rising inflation — largely driven by disruptions in the global energy supply chain.
Despite the weak macro signal, the equity market reacted in the opposite direction. The AU200 (S&P/ASX 200) rose by around +2.2% to 8,680 points, supported by a global risk-on move and hopes for de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The rally was mainly driven by the mining sector and cyclical stocks, reflecting Australia’s strong exposure to commodities and global demand. However, this rebound followed a very weak March, when the index fell nearly 10%. Australian equities are particularly sensitive to geopolitical shocks, oil price volatility, and expectations for global growth, making them a useful barometer of the Middle East conflict.
Will EssilorLuxottica and L'Oréal acquire part of the Giorgio Armani brand❓
Nike slumps 10% after earnings falling to the lowest level since 2015 📉
BREAKING: Eurozone PMI stronger than expected 📈 EURUSD gains
Morning wrap (01.04.2026)
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
