Morning wrap (01.04.2026)

Oil prices have risen again. OIL is gaining 1.30% to 104.40 USD per barrel, and OIL.WTI is up 1.10% to 102.60 USD per barrel.

New strikes on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region kept supply risks elevated. At the same time, Trump’s comments about a possible withdrawal limited further gains.

Trump stated that the US could withdraw within two to three weeks and that a formal agreement with Iran is not necessary. This suggests a shift toward a “mission accomplished” narrative. The key condition is neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat rather than reaching a diplomatic agreement.

The United Arab Emirates is moving closer to direct military involvement in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain appear more aligned, while Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait maintain a more cautious stance. Any potential coalition would likely focus on maritime security and air defense.

New attacks, including strikes near Doha and fuel infrastructure in Kuwait, show that energy routes remain vulnerable.

China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 from 52.1, marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion but at a slower pace. Output, orders, and employment are still growing. However, rising costs and worsening supply conditions are beginning to weigh on the sector. The conflict in the Middle East is increasingly impacting production costs in China.

Input prices in China rose at the fastest pace since March 2022, while output prices reached their highest level in four years. Companies are beginning to pass higher costs on to customers.

Japan’s PMI fell to 51.6 from 53.0 — still above 50 but with slower growth momentum. Output, orders, and employment continue to rise, but at a reduced pace. Higher energy prices pushed costs up at the fastest rate in around 19 months.

Australia’s PMI fell to 49.8, back below the 50 threshold. New orders declined for the first time in five months. Production costs rose to the highest level in 3.5 years, mainly due to energy and transport. Business sentiment deteriorated significantly.

US indices surged in response to expectations of a faster resolution of the conflict. US30 rose 2.55%, US500 nearly 3.00%, and US100 3.90%. It was one of the strongest impulses since May 2025.

OpenAI completed a funding round of 122 billion USD at a valuation of 852 billion USD. The round may be a preparation for an IPO in 2026.