Daily summary: Dollar recovers from yesterday's sell-off, equities gain on upbeat macro data (17.07.2025)

Wall Street heads toward a green close, supported by stronger-than-expected retail sales data (S&P 500: +0.4%; DJIA: +0.4%; Nasdaq: +0.8%; Russell 2000: +0.9%). Gains are led by technology, industrial, and consumer staples sectors.

US retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in June (forecast: 0.1%; prior: -0.9%), driven by auto sales and restaurant/bar spending.

New unemployment claims unexpectedly fell last week (221k vs. forecast 233k, prior 227k).

Former Fed member and potential Powell successor Kevin Warsh called on CNBC for a “regime change” at the Federal Reserve, criticizing current leadership for its inflation management and reluctance to cut rates. Warsh said the Fed’s “data-dependent” stance undermines its credibility and confidence in monetary policy.

GE Aerospace (GE.US) beat expectations and raised full-year 2025 guidance, posting Q2 EPS of $1.66 (forecast $1.43) and revenues of $10.2 billion (forecast $9.6 billion). 

PepsiCo (PEP.US) also topped Q2 forecasts with strong international growth (EPS $2.12) and plans to expand low- and zero-sugar product lines.

European markets showed broad optimism, with German DAX (+1.5%), French CAC40 (+1.3%), UK FTSE 100 (+0.5%), Italian FTSE MIB (+0.9%), Spanish IBX35 (+0.8%), and Swiss SMI (+0.4%) all closing higher.

On forex, the US dollar strengthened (USDIDX +0.35%) after yesterday’s minor panic, boosted by data reinforcing Fed’s view that the US economy is “doing well.” The weakest G10 currency was the Australian dollar (AUDUSD -0.67%), hurt by weak labor data; Swiss franc also weakened (USDCHF +0.6%). The British pound held up best (GBPUSD -0.13%). EURUSD dropped 0.5% to 1.1584.

Gold dipped 0.3% to $1,337 per ounce, while silver continued rising (+0.45% to $38.08). Platinum (+3.1%) and palladium (+2.9%) also gained. 

Brent and WTI crude rebounded 1.1% and 1.5% respectively (Brent at $69.30/barrel). Natural gas fell 1% following the latest EIA report.

Crypto sentiment was mixed: Bitcoin declined 0.7% to $29,115, while Ethereum gained 1.1% to $3,420.