01:30 PM GMT, United States - Inflation Data for November:
- CPI: actual 2.7% YoY; forecast 3.1% YoY; previous 3.0% YoY;
- Core CPI: actual 2.6% YoY; forecast 3.0% YoY; previous 3.0% YoY;
November’s CPI report appeared softer than expected, with headline inflation up only 0.2% over the September–November window and the yearly rate easing to 2.7%. But the result is clouded by data gaps from the October government shutdown, which forced the BLS to assume a flat CPI reading for that month. Core CPI also rose just 0.2% over two months, supported by softer shelter inflation and mild increases in food and energy.
** important remark: data collected over the past two to three months may be unreliable due to shutdown-related disruptions
Even after accounting for the technical noise, the broader disinflation trend looks intact: core inflation slowed to 2.6% y/y while energy and food posted moderate annual gains. Markets responded by leaning slightly more dovish—rate futures now imply about 62 bps of easing next year, Fed swaps added a small amount of additional expected easing into late 2026, and the odds of a January rate cut nudged up to roughly 29%. For investors, the report supports the narrative of cooling inflation, but the shutdown-related distortions mean the Fed and markets will treat this month’s softness with caution.
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