- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%.
- Australian household spending stagnated at 0.0% MoM amidst persistent inflation pressures.
- Upcoming US labor market data and central bank speeches can drive higher market volatility.
- AUDUSD is testing the psychological support level of 0.70 after a sharp sell-off.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%.
- Australian household spending stagnated at 0.0% MoM amidst persistent inflation pressures.
- Upcoming US labor market data and central bank speeches can drive higher market volatility.
- AUDUSD is testing the psychological support level of 0.70 after a sharp sell-off.
The Asian session brought a key decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates as expected by 25 basis points to 4.60%, citing elevated inflation risks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Accompanying data on household spending in Australia showed stagnation (0.0% MoM vs 0.3% consensus), confirming an economic slowdown amidst persistent price pressures.
In the UK, the BRC Shop Price Index fell to 1.4% YoY. The calendar for the rest of the day is dominated by speeches from central bank representatives (Fed, ECB, RBA, Bank of England) as well as key US labor market data (JOLTS) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which could trigger elevated volatility in foreign exchange and debt markets.
Key Releases from the Asian Session
- UK BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): actual 1.4% vs 1.5% previously.
- Australian Household Spending (MoM): actual 0.0% vs 0.3% consensus and 1.1% previously.
- RBA Interest Rate (Cash Rate): actual 4.60% (25 bps hike) in line with consensus, supported by a hawkish statement on inflation risks.
Macroeconomic Calendar (CET time zone)
- 06:30 Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision.
- 07:30 Australia - RBA Press Conference.
- 09:00 Switzerland - KOF Economic Barometer. Consensus: 106.0. Previous: 106.7.
- 09:00 Spain - Flash CPI (YoY). Consensus: 4.6%. Previous: 4.3%.
- 10:30 United Kingdom - Mortgage Approvals. Consensus: 56k. Previous: 56k.
- 12:00 Eurozone - Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel.
- 13:00 Eurozone - Speech by ECB President Lagarde.
- 14:30 Canada - GDP (MoM). Consensus: 0.0%. Previous: 0.3%.
- 15:00 USA - HPI House Price Index (MoM). Consensus: 0.1%. Previous: 0.0%.
- 15:00 USA - S&P/CS Composite-20 House Price Index (YoY). Consensus: 2.2%. Previous: 2.1%.
- 16:00 USA - Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Consensus: 89.2. Previous: 89.4.
- 16:00 USA - JOLTS Job Openings. Consensus: 7.23M. Previous: 7.27M.
- 17:00 United Kingdom - Speech by MPC Member Mann.
- 17:00 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Bowman.
- 17:30 United Kingdom - Speech by MPC Member Taylor.
- 18:40 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Barr.
- 19:00 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Goolsbee.
- 19:30 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Musalem.
- 20:00 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Williams.
- 21:00 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Waller.
- 22:30 USA - Weekly API Crude Oil Stock Report.
Markets to Watch
- AUD (Australian Dollar): The reaction to the RBA's hawkish statement and rate hike is causing increased volatility in commodity currencies.
- USD (US Dollar): A series of afternoon releases from the US (including JOLTS and consumer confidence) along with numerous speeches from FOMC members will determine the sentiment around the US currency.
- Debt Markets (Government Bonds): Scheduled bond auctions in Italy and the UK, alongside close monitoring of yields in Asia and Europe, place the debt market at the center of investor attention.
AUDUSD — Technical Analysis (D1)
The Australian dollar exchange rate is testing an important round level of 0.70 after a sharp sell-off in recent sessions. The movement was impulsive, with one large bearish candle erasing the gains of several sessions and crossing below the important 50-period moving average.
The moving average layout has significantly deteriorated. Price is trading below the SMA25 (0.71233) and SMA50 (0.71121), and the averages themselves are beginning to converge, which, under sustained supply pressure, opens the door to a bearish cross. As long as the rate does not reclaim the 0.7112–0.7123 area, initiative remains on the side of the bears.
The reaction at Fibonacci retracements is key. Quotes stopped precisely between the 61.8% level (0.70065) and 50% (0.70498) — a natural first support zone. Breaking below this area would expose the market to a test of the 78.6% level at 0.69431, and subsequently the June low of 0.68632. To the upside, the nearest resistance lies at 38.2% in the 0.70938 region, reinforced by the presence of the moving averages.
Indicators confirm weakness while also signaling exhaustion of the move. RSI at 34.6 is approaching oversold territory — historically, in this setup, the rate has halted momentum multiple times. MACD (-0.00319) crossed below the signal line (-0.00162) from above, and the histogram remains negative, indicating an active bearish impulse without signs of divergence.
In the base-case scenario, an attempt to stabilize within the 0.7000–0.7050 range and a technical correction toward 0.7094 can be expected. A sustained move below 0.7000, breaking both the 61.8% retracement and psychological level simultaneously, would signal a continuation toward the June lows.
Morning Briefing: Higher Rates in Australia and Further Rise in Oil Prices
Daily Summary: Lack of progress in negotiations weighs on Wall Street and precious metals (28.09.2026)
US Open: Wall Street starts the week in red (28.09.2026)
📊Market Wrap: Oil drives yields higher and gold lower (28.09.2026)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.