- Thursday's trading session on the stock exchanges in Europe, the US, and Asia brought us another wave of sell-offs on the major stock markets.
- The main factors driving valuations down are: 1) escalation of the conflict in the Middle East 2) liquidity problems in the US financial sector
- On the cash market, Nasdaq is currently down 1.45% and Dow Jones 1.3%. In Europe, DAX lost 0.29%, French CAC40 fell by 0.71%, and Polish WIG20 dropped by 0.65%.
- Crude oil is gaining value today, with Brent returning above $101 per barrel.
- Interestingly, however, there is a lot of conflicting information surrounding this raw material today.
- Iran's leadership has announced that it intends to respond with fire to any attacks and is paving the way for new fronts/fighting if Israel and the US continue to attack the country's energy infrastructure. Trump mentioned today that regime change is the most important goal, and rising oil prices are secondary. At the same time, we learned of the White House's plans to temporarily suspend the implementation of the so-called Jones Act, a 1920 law requiring that goods be transported between US ports on ships built in the US, owned by American companies, and operated by American crews.
- The response of an Iranian deputy, stating that there were no plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, also served to soften the echo of the conflict.
- Returning to the stock markets. One of the weakest segments at the start of the US session was banks and finance in general – the pressure stems from two sources: concerns about the rising cost of money amid high oil prices and growing problems in the private credit segment. Morgan Stanley limited the possibility of redeeming units in its North Haven Private Income Fund after investors requested the redemption of approximately 11% of shares, while the fund's charter allows for only 5% to be paid out per quarter.
- This mistrust is compounded by criticism from companies such as Glendon Capital, which accuse Blue Owl, among others, of underestimating real losses in their portfolios, which the market interprets as a sign that the problems may be deeper than official valuations show.
- On the Forex market, the US dollar is once again performing best, followed by the strengthening Canadian dollar. At the same time, we are seeing the biggest declines in Antipodean currencies.
- The strength of the dollar is not indifferent to precious metals today. GOLD prices are falling by 0.8% to $5,100 today.
- Bitcoin, on the other hand, is mirroring Wall Street sentiment, with the cryptocurrency losing nearly 0.7%, although it is still defending the psychological barrier of $70,000.
BREAKING: NATGAS ticks higher after EIA data release 💡
Chart of the Day: EURUSD – Why is the Euro Losing to the Dollar?
Cattle futures fall amid JBS plant strike, rising corn and Middle East 📌
Morning Wrap: Conflict Escalation Pushes Oil to $100 (12.03.2025)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
