-
EURUSD has fallen to its lowest level since early August and is heading towards 1.1500.
-
The primary driver is the strengthening Dollar (USD) due to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed (from $\sim$90% to $\sim$60%).
-
Further Dollar strengthening could occur if next week's US data (ISM, ADP) proves positive.
-
There are signs that ECB may return to cuts early next year
-
EURUSD has fallen to its lowest level since early August and is heading towards 1.1500.
-
The primary driver is the strengthening Dollar (USD) due to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed (from $\sim$90% to $\sim$60%).
-
Further Dollar strengthening could occur if next week's US data (ISM, ADP) proves positive.
-
There are signs that ECB may return to cuts early next year
The dollar is preparing for a positive close not only this week but also this month. The EURUSD pair is breaking local lows from mid-month today and is heading towards the 1.1500 level amid diminishing chances for interest rate cuts in the United States. The dollar is strengthening against every G10 currency today.
The probability of a rate cut in the US has decreased from around 90% before the last Fed decision to a level of nearly 60%. If next week's data, such as the ISM indices or the ADP report, turn out positive, it could increase the Fed's confidence regarding the state of the US economy and lead to further dollar strengthening. Moreover there are some signs that the EBC may be flexible in the near future which may mean that the interest rates may decrease in the next year.
Expectations for Fed cuts have decreased. The market now sees interest rate declines to around 3.0% by the end of this cycle, considering the effective rate (3.25% for the upper bound). Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB
EURUSD is falling below the 1.1530 level today, breaking through the mid-month support. Just 3 sessions ago, the pair was closer to the 1.17 level, but currently, it seems that the 1.1500 level is within reach. Source: xStation5
Daily Summary: ECB, FOMC and MAG7 - mixed signals and risk aversion
ECB Conference: Global Uncertainty, Policy Stability 💶
Chart of the day - Soybean (30.10.2025)
Morning wrap (30.10.2025)
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
