Daily summary: Dollar loses ground after NFP; OIL.WTI at its lowest since 2021 💡

US stock markets extend losses after the Trump administration threatened retaliatory measures against the EU for taxes imposed on American technology companies, with the White House pointing to Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify, among others, as potential targets for new restrictions or fees.

The European Union is increasingly using regulatory tools and financial penalties against American tech giants; in 2024, penalties against Big Tech alone generated more revenue than the tax paid by European tech companies, and in 2024–2025, Apple, Meta, LinkedIn, X, and Google are expected to pay billions in fines. The penalties are calculated on the basis of the global revenues of the parent companies, so their accounting optimization is limited, but the impact on valuations is spread over time as the market discounts them gradually. The conflict is rooted in the contradiction between the Big Tech model (mass data processing, quasi-monopolistic position, minimal oversight) and the EU's regulatory philosophy (competition and consumer protection), which explains the regularity and scale of the interventions. From the US perspective, the stakes are economic: in the trade balance with Europe, IT services are one of the few areas where the US partially offsets its deficit, which is why the administration strongly defends the interests of its companies.

Moderate risk-off sentiment dominates global indices – WIG20 loses over 1%, broad WIG approx. 0.9%, the S&P 500 is down about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq is down about 0.1%, reflecting a clash between cooling growth, macro data uncertainty, geopolitics (Trump vs. the EU, the war in Ukraine), and rising expectations for interest rate cuts. On the currency market, the dollar is clearly losing ground in response to relatively weak NFP data from the US. The Polish zloty is performing very well, as are the yen and the British pound.

The latest data from the US labor and consumption markets paint a picture of a gradual slowdown, but not an economic collapse. Retail sales in October practically stood still (0.0% m/m), and the November NFP report showed only +64,000 new jobs with unemployment at 4.6%, a growing number of people working part-time for economic reasons, and very low wage growth (0.1% m/m). At the same time, the PMI for the US for December (Composite 53, Manufacturing 51.8, Services 52.9) remains above 50, but this is the third consecutive decline, signaling a slowdown in growth momentum.

Preliminary December PMIs paint a mixed but generally weak picture of the eurozone economy. In Germany, the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 (below forecasts), the services PMI to 52.6, and the composite index to 51.5, signaling further problems for industry and a slowdown in growth across the economy. In France, manufacturing surprised on the upside (50.6, returning to expansion), but services brushed with stagnation, so the picture remains fragile. Germany's weakness dominates market perception and weakens the euro and yields, limiting the ECB's scope for more hawkish rhetoric for 2026; the baseline scenario is to maintain a neutral tone, without any significant tightening.

Data from the UK labor market indicate a further weakening of employment, accompanied by continued high wage growth. Employment is falling (including a change in employment of -38,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.1%), but average earnings are growing by 4.7% y/y, slightly above expectations, which is sustaining inflationary pressure. This mix (a weaker labor market + persistently high wages) worsens the picture for the pound and increases the BoE's dilemma: the data favors a rate cut (the market already expects it at the next meeting), but the inflation path may remain bumpy.

In Poland, November CPI inflation fell to 2.5% y/y, while core inflation excluding food and energy stood at 2.7% y/y; excluding administered prices, price pressure fell to 2.0%. The data confirm that inflation remains within the NBP's target range and support the ongoing cycle of monetary policy easing, although the reading itself did not trigger a major reaction in USDPLN, which remains at its September lows.

WTI prices fell below $55 and Brent below $60 per barrel—to their lowest levels since 2021—amid fears of a record oversupply in 2026. (The IEA even talks about ~4 million b/d, the EIA about ~2 million b/d) and discounting the scenario of peace in Ukraine, which could unlock greater exports of Russian oil. In addition, sentiment is being dampened by weak data from China (lower industrial production and slower retail sales), as well as supply-side complications related to Venezuela (blocked shipments, discounts, contract disputes following the seizure of a tanker by the US).

At the same time, increased declines are also visible in NATGAS natural gas. GOLD is rebounding today and gaining nearly 0.2% on an intraday basis.