Morning wrap (15.12.2025)

Futures on major European and U.S. equity indices are starting the new week with a modest rebound (US500: +0.2%; EU50: +0.25%), partly recovering from Friday’s pullback, which was driven mainly by disappointing Oracle results and concerns over the sustainability of the AI rally. Sentiment is supported primarily by a renewed “less-hawkish Fed” narrative for 2026.

According to Donald Trump, U.S. inflation has been “completely neutralized,” and the future composition of the Fed should push interest rates lower.

White House chief economic adviser and leading candidate for the next Fed chair, Kevin Hassett, sought to reassure markets, saying that while he would present Trump’s views on monetary policy at the Fed, the FOMC would retain full independence to reject them. Hassett added that, as Fed chair, he would not take Trump’s opinions into account when deciding on interest rates.

Asia-Pacific markets began the week extending losses from Friday’s Wall Street session, additionally weighed down by a run of weak data from China. China equities (CHN.cash) are the biggest laggard (-0.5%), with declines also seen in Hong Kong (HK.cash: -0.1%) and Australia (AU200.cash: -0.1%). The exception is Japan’s Nikkei (JP225: +0.3%), supported by improved business sentiment in the Tankan survey and lower exposure to the technology sector.

China’s November data highlighted a deepening slowdown. Retail sales rose just 1.3% y/y versus expectations of 2.8%, industrial production increased 4.8% versus the expected 5%, and fixed-asset investment fell 2.6%, deepening October’s decline. The main drags were the ongoing property slump and weak consumer sentiment. The auto sector was a significant drag on retail sales after local governments paused trade-in subsidies.

Interest rates in New Zealand are likely to remain at 2.25% for an extended period, assuming economic conditions evolve in line with projections, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said today.

In FX markets, the standout move is a rebound in the yen (USDJPY, EURJPY: -0.55%), as Japan prepares for what could be its first interest-rate hike since January later this week. The U.S. dollar index (USDIDX) is down 0.05% amid a widening divergence between U.S. monetary policy expectations and those elsewhere. EURUSD is flat at 1.173.

Dovish Fed expectations continue to support precious metals. Gold is up 1% at USD 4,346 per ounce, while silver rebounds 2% to USD 63.17 per ounce after Friday’s correction.

Brent and WTI crude have halted their downward pressure, rebounding about 0.5% from monthly lows. Natural gas is up 0.75%.

Bitcoin is up 1.4% at USD 89,750, while Ethereum gains 1.9% to USD 3,136.