Morning wrap (08.10.2025)

U.S. index futures are trading flat, signaling caution after the recent rally driven by AI optimism and mixed Oracle results. Investors are also awaiting today’s release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. The EU50 gains 0.15%.

Trading across the Asia-Pacific region remains subdued due to national holidays in China and South Korea, while pessimism is fueled by declines in technology stocks following Oracle’s disappointing margins (Baidu: -4% in Wall Street premarket). The pro-equity sentiment from Sanae Takaichi’s victory as leader of Japan’s LDP is also fading. Regional indices trade in the red (HK.cash and CHN.cash: -1.4%, JP225: -0.45%, AU200.cash: -0.2%).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 bps to 2.5% (Bloomberg consensus: -25 bps). The decision was unanimous, and the bank signaled openness to further cuts. According to the RBNZ, weak economic activity could be further weighed down by consumer caution, which should also help bring inflation toward the midpoint of the 1–3% target range. The NZD is the weakest G10 currency today.

Japan’s current account surplus rose above expectations to 3.776 trillion yen (Bloomberg consensus: 3.55 trillion, previous: 2.684 trillion).

On the forex market, the New Zealand dollar is under heavy selling pressure following the dovish move and tone from the RBNZ (NZDUSD: -1%, EURNZD: +0.65%). The U.S. dollar index rises for the third consecutive session (+0.3% to 98.63), reaching its highest level since August 22. The pound, franc, and yen (the weakest since February) are all down about 0.3% against the dollar. EURUSD declines 0.34% to 1.1616.

Gold surpasses $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history (+1.3%) amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The rally extends to other precious metals as well: silver gains nearly 2.3% to $48.90 per ounce, while platinum and palladium each add about 2.2%.

Brent and WTI crude extend gains by another 0.3%, while natural gas (NATGAS) slips about 0.9%.

Cryptocurrencies continue to decline. Bitcoin falls another 0.5% to $121,620, Ethereum slides 1.3% to $4,432, and other major altcoins are also in the red, including Solana (-1.9%), Dogecoin (-1.8%), and Polygon (-1.6%).