Economic Calendar: UK Unemployment on the Rise – How Will the Bank of England React? (19.05.2026)

The most important data releases scheduled for today are already out.

Japan's GDP growth in Q1 surprised on the upside (growing by 2.1% y/y). However, the GDP deflator (3.4%) also exceeded expectations, fueling concerns about the inflationary situation in the country. Markets are currently pricing in a June rate hike at nearly 80%. However, despite the BoJ's intervention, the yen remains under pressure. The USD/JPY pair once again broke the 159 mark this morning.

Chart 1: USDJPY (13.05 - 19.05)

Source: xStation, 19.05.2026

Data from the British labor market proved mixed. It showed a further increase in the unemployment rate (to 5%) and the largest decrease in payrolled employees since the COVID pandemic. Wages rose more than expected (4.1%), however. This mix calls for caution from the Bank of England. Market expectations for interest rate hikes have fallen. Investors expect policymakers to hold in June and consider a rate hike at the July meeting.

Chart 2: UK PAYE Payrolled Employees Monthly Change (2014 - 2026)

Source: ONS via Bloomberg, 19.05.2026

Macroeconomic Calendar

19th of May

• Japan – Q1 Preliminary GDP (00:50)*
• Australia – May Consumer Confidence (01:30)*
• Australia – May RBA Minutes (02:30)*
• UK – March Wage Growth (07:00)*
• UK – March Unemployment Rate (07:00)*
• Eurozone – March Trade Balance (10:00)
• USA – Weekly ADP Labour Market Data (13:15)
• US – April Pending Home Sales (3:00 PM)

All in UK time.

* - already published

20th of May (Morning Hours)

• China – 1- and 5-year LPR Rate Decision (02:00)
• Germany – April PPI inflation (07:00)
• UK – April CPI Inflation (07:00)
• UK – April PPI inflation (07:00)

Earnings

19th of May

• Home Depot (before the US stock exchange opens),
• MakeMyTrip (before the US stock exchange opens),
• Keysight Technologies (after the US stock exchange closes).

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB