1:32 PM · 2 October 2026

BREAKING: US NFP data surprises to the downside; USD dips🔥

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September vs. 84,000 expected, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% vs. 4.1% forecast.

Private payrolls gained only 46,000, while government employment fell 17,000.

Wage growth also cooled to 0.13% MoM and 3.02% YoY, while August payrolls were revised down to 133,000 from 162,000 and July to -10,000.

The US dollar index (USDIDX) dips significantly after the report. Kalshi now prices an 85% chance the Fed holds rates in October after payrolls rose just 29,000 vs. 84,000 expected. Unemployment climbed to 4.2%, triggering a sharp dovish repricing of the Fed outlook. Source: XTB

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