US OPEN: Wall Street Shrugs Off Iran Concerns, Eyes Tesla Results

Market Situation

Sentiment during the late European session and the Wall Street opening is, unsurprisingly, dominated by geopolitics. Trump’s decision to extend the truce with Iran came just as the previous two-week agreement was set to expire. Despite the extension, the U.S. is maintaining its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran insists it will only return to peace talks once the blockade is lifted. This geopolitical stalemate is fueling fears of deepening shortages in oil, LNG, and fertilizers globally. While stock indices are rising, other markets reflect significant uncertainty—particularly oil. Iran’s recent seizure of two vessels indicates that the situation is far from stable, even if direct attacks between the two sides are currently on hold. There is speculation that the U.S. has significantly depleted its missile stockpiles and requires time for production and delivery. Furthermore, the current U.S. blockade aims to choke off Iran's remaining cash flow; however, maintaining this pressure for another month could drive crude prices into the $100-$110 range and push TTF gas back toward €50-60/MWh or higher, which would be catastrophic during the gas storage refill season.

S&P 500 (US500) Technical Analysis

The broader market remains tense following Tuesday’s declines, where the S&P 500 lost approximately 0.6%. A red daily candle appeared on the charts, signaling a slowdown in the previous two-week upward trend that had been driven by optimism regarding an end to the conflict. While today’s return to growth is encouraging, volatility has decreased, suggesting that further positive catalysts are needed to break decisively above the 7,150-point mark. Notably, just two or three more sessions of sideways trading could lead to a break of the upward trendline that has seen the US500 rally from the 6,300 area to current levels.

Company News

• Adobe (ADBE): Shares are up over 3.5% in early trading. The company announced a new share buyback program of up to $25 billion (valid through 2030) and expanded its partnership with Omnicom Group to develop advanced AI agent models for enterprises.

• Airbnb (ABNB): The stock is up approximately 2.7% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the company from "equal-weight" to "overweight."

• Boeing (BA): The stock gained nearly 4% at the open, though those gains have since moderated to just under 2%. Investors reacted positively to a report showing a lower-than-expected cash outflow and news that Boeing delivered the most aircraft in Q1 since 2019. However, the aviation sector remains under pressure due to the tight fuel market.

• Tesla (TSLA): The company is in the spotlight ahead of its quarterly report. On Tuesday, shares fell slightly, closing below the 50-day moving average. Tesla is currently the largest holding in ARK Invest’s ETFs. While Q1 deliveries missed expectations, the company still saw year-on-year growth. Investors view Tesla less as a traditional carmaker and more as an AI-focused tech firm; therefore, management commentary on future projects will be critical for price action. An implied move of 6-7% is expected following the results.

• UnitedHealth (UNH): Shares are up 0.7% following an upgrade to "Buy" by Argus Research. Analysts pointed to the company’s very strong first-quarter financial performance.

Tesla shares had lost nearly one-third of their value from their all-time high through April 9, but that loss has now been pared to just over 20%. The stock is trading at relatively high levels with extreme valuations in terms of P/E and P/S ratios. Nevertheless, the company continues to sell a visionary future, and if the Wall Street bull market persists, a further recovery of the recent momentum seen in Tesla stock cannot be ruled out. The nearest technical resistance sits at approximately $430 per share, while key support is found at $355, aligning with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward wave.

Source: xStation5