US OPEN: Wall Street holds its breath ahead of Nvidia earnings

Opening Bell: The calm before the AI storm

The wait is nearly over. Today’s session on Wall Street is dominated by one of the quarter's most pivotal events: the release of Nvidia’s (NVDA.US) financial results immediately after the closing bell. Nvidia effectively rounds off the earnings season for the market’s heavyweights. It is worth noting that Nvidia’s fiscal calendar is slightly offset compared to its peers on Wall Street.

Futures on US indices pointed to a positive opening: the US500 is currently up 0.5%, while the US100 is gaining over 1%. For now, the market appears to have looked past risks concerning international trade and Iran, focusing instead on Nvidia’s performance. Notably, companies most closely linked to the giant, such as TSMC and ASML, are trading at historical highs. Conversely, those utilizing Nvidia’s technology, such as Microsoft, have lagged significantly. Investors are weighing whether potentially phenomenal results from the AI leader will be enough to propel the market to new heights, or if we are set for a "sell the news" reaction.

Nvidia is expected to report revenue growth of approximately 68%, representing an acceleration compared to the previous two quarters. While the company appears expensive on a trailing P/E basis, the forward P/E suggests a more tempered valuation. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

​​​​​​​The share price remains in consolidation, yet the underlying valuation—specifically the projected P/E—is relatively low, near the recovery levels seen at the turn of Q1 and Q2 2025. By other metrics, Nvidia also does not appear excessively expensive. However, Nvidia must beat market expectations and avoid any indications of order fulfillment issues; on the contrary, it must demonstrate a robustly growing outlook. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

The technology sector stands at a critical juncture. While Nvidia’s customers are announcing massive capital expenditure (capex) plans, the Nasdaq 100 index has recently shown relative weakness compared to the broader market, heightening the stakes of today’s report.

Technical Analysis: US500

The US500 has outperformed the US100 recently, driven by a rotation of capital into defensive stocks. Nevertheless, technology shares are leading the charge on Wall Street today. Nvidia is breaking out of consolidation and trading at its highest levels since November, allowing the US500 to climb to its highest point since the February 12 sell-off. Should Nvidia deliver strong results, the US500 has a chance to reach 7,000 points, while the US100 could move toward 26,000 points.

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Corporate News:

• Nvidia (NVDA.US) Shares in the giant are up 0.7% at the start of the session. The market expects not only an earnings beat but, crucially, optimistic guidance regarding demand for Blackwell chips. Nvidia has recently underperformed the broader semiconductor index (SOX), making today’s report a "make or break" moment for the continuation of the AI bull market.
• Lithium Sector – Zimbabwe shakes supply. Lithium producers are gaining value following reports that Zimbabwe has suspended exports of lithium concentrates and raw minerals. This represents a significant signal for the electric vehicle battery supply chain, supporting shares in entities such as Albemarle (+7%) and SQM (+4%).
• The Other "Magnificent": Mixed sentiment in Big Tech. Most of the "Magnificent Seven" are trading higher: Microsoft (+0.9%), Amazon (+0.6%), and Meta (+0.9%) are gaining at the open. The exception is Apple (AAPL.US), which is down 0.2%, continuing its relative weakness against the tech sector—despite a recent resurgence in popularity fueled by ambitious plans for an AI assistant on every handset.
• Broader Market Gains: Cava, HP, and Lowe’s. Investors are also responding to earnings and forecasts from other sectors. Gains are being recorded by Cava (restaurant chain), HP, and Lowe’s, demonstrating that capital is seeking opportunities beyond the immediate sphere of artificial intelligence.