The S&P 500 opened slightly higher (+0.1%), while the NASDAQ posted stronger gains (+0.6%), largely driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks following yesterday's declines. Brent crude prices are stabilising near $79.50, with the EURUSD pair trading at 1.16. The market is anxiously awaiting the first FOMC meeting under Chairman Warsh's tenure, with a primary focus on the interest rate projections (Dot Plot) and the subsequent press conference.
Figure 1: Nasdaq 100 Dashboard (17.06.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.06.2026
Geopolitics
Meanwhile, President Trump continues his erratic communication regarding the Iran deal. At the G7 summit in Evian, France, he simultaneously suggested the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened within a day or two while asserting that the current memorandum does not constitute a final agreement, warning that if he "doesn't like what he sees," he will "strike (Iran) again." For now, markets appear to be discounting his rhetoric.
The signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday. A tangible restoration of maritime traffic through the Strait would serve as a major catalyst; despite White House assurances, investors remain skeptical regarding a definitive end to the US-Iran saga.
Monetary Policy
All signs point to unchanged interest rates, as any deviation from a pause would be considered a sensational market event. The session will be led by the newly appointed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. While a dynamic cycle of rate cuts was widely anticipated following the leadership change, those expectations have cooled significantly. However, a shift toward a more dovish tone is expected, likely tempering expectations for further rate hikes in the US.
The Dot Plot will be critical. Should a significant disparity emerge between Warsh's rhetoric and the Committee's actual projections, the market may look past the Chairman's narrative, doubting his ability to build consensus among policymakers. In such a scenario, the US dollar could recover recent losses, especially as conviction fades regarding further monetary tightening by the ECB.
Sector Analysis
The semiconductor sector is recovering, led by Applied Materials (+8.9%) following its announced partnership with EssilorLuxottica to develop high-tech AR and AI-powered eyewear. The company is also benefiting from analyst price target upgrades. Sympathetic gains in peers like Lam Research and ASML suggest the optimism is broadly sector-based.
Conversely, mature software firms such as Adobe, Cognizant, and Workday are underperforming. Institutional investors are showing increased skepticism toward SaaS (Software as a Service) business models. This weakness may also be attributed to end-of-quarter "window dressing," as funds offload underperformers to refine their portfolios ahead of the Q2 close.
Figure 2: Nasdaq 100 Gainers and Losers (17.06.2026)
Source: Bloomberg, 17.06.2026
Figure 3: Nasdaq 100 Sector Heatmap (17.06.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.06.2026
Technical Analysis
Figure 4: US100 [D1] (14.10.2025 - 17.06.2026)
Source: xStation, 17.06.2026
Following a deeper retracement toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the index has resumed its medium-term uptrend, once again clearing the 30,000 threshold. The 50-period EMA near 28,600 serves as key support; as long as price action remains above this level, any pullbacks should be viewed as corrections within a dominant bullish trend.
The RSI is currently hovering near the 50 level, reflecting a lack of clear directional bias, while the MACD remains in a sell signal, indicating that previous upward momentum is waning.
Corporate News
- La-Z-Boy (LZB.US): Increased store count drove significant Q4 outperformance. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.26, over 50% above the consensus estimate of $0.82.
- Lionsgate Studios (LION.US): Shares fell 6.5% following reports that Netflix is not currently interested in an acquisition of the studio.
- SpaceX (SPCX.US): Wednesday appears set to be the company's first losing session, with shares down 4.3%. The market awaits the company's expected addition to the Nasdaq 100 index in the coming weeks.
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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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