SpaceX crashes 6% despite a wave of bullish Wall Street initiations 📉

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares are down nearly 6% today to around $150, despite receiving highly optimistic coverage from several major investment banks. The company is also joining the Nasdaq 100 today, a move that JPMorgan previously estimated could generate approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows from index-tracking funds.

• Citi initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, while outlining a long-term scenario in which the stock could exceed $900 if the Starship program is successfully deployed at scale. Bullish initiations also came from Deutsche Bank ($255), Bank of America ($235), Macquarie ($250), Clear Street ($217), and Mizuho ($200).
• Analysts believe the company's biggest long-term growth drivers will be Starlink, AI infrastructure, and SpaceX's technological leadership in reusable rockets.
• Today's decline may appear surprising given the overwhelmingly positive news flow. Besides joining the Nasdaq 100, SpaceX has also reached the end of its IPO quiet period, allowing major Wall Street firms to publish their first official research reports on the company.
• However, markets often follow the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern. The Nasdaq 100 inclusion had been known well in advance and was likely already reflected in the share price. Following a strong rally over recent weeks, many investors appear to be taking profits.

Wall Street sees substantial upside

The most optimistic long-term view came from Citi, which initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, implying more than 30% upside from current levels. The bank stressed, however, that it does not view this target as the company's ultimate valuation but rather a milestone on the path toward a much higher long-term valuation.

According to Citi, SpaceX is entering one of the most transformational periods in its history. The bank believes the company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on two of the biggest technology trends of the coming decade: global satellite connectivity and artificial intelligence infrastructure. In Citi's most optimistic scenario, a successful large-scale rollout of Starship could eventually support a valuation exceeding $900 per share.

A wave of bullish analyst initiations

Citi was far from alone in its positive outlook. Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Macquarie, Clear Street, and Mizuho also initiated coverage with Buy-equivalent ratings, with most price targets ranging between $200 and $255.

Among the major investment banks, Deutsche Bank published the highest price target at $255, implying nearly 70% upside from current levels. At the same time, analysts highlighted the wide dispersion in valuation estimates, with published targets ranging from approximately $62 to $310, illustrating the significant uncertainty surrounding SpaceX's long-term value.

The only notably cautious view came from MoffettNathanson, which initiated coverage with a Neutral rating, citing uncertainty surrounding the company's long-term financial projections.

AI, Starlink, and Starship are expected to drive the next growth phase

Analysts consistently point to SpaceX's advantages in vertical integration, reusable launch technology, and Starlink's dominant position in the satellite broadband market.

Deutsche Bank argues that the company's combination of in-house rocket development, satellite manufacturing, and engineering expertise creates a competitive advantage that is extremely difficult to replicate. The bank also believes SpaceX could become a leading provider of AI infrastructure—not only through terrestrial data centers but also by eventually enabling orbital computing infrastructure.

The company's financial outlook further supports the bullish thesis. SpaceX generated approximately $19.3 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, while analysts expect around 95% revenue growth this year, making it one of the fastest-growing large technology companies.

The market still sees meaningful risks

Despite the overwhelmingly positive analyst sentiment, risks remain. The successful commercialization of Starship remains the key element of the long-term investment case. Large-scale deployment of the platform is expected to significantly reduce launch costs while enabling further expansion of satellite communications, orbital infrastructure, and AI-related services.

Analysts also point to regulatory risks across several business segments and the company's demanding valuation following its recent rally. As a result, even highly positive news does not necessarily translate into short-term gains, as much of the bullish narrative may already have been priced into the stock.