Oil loses amid hopes for de-escalation in Middle East 📌

Brent crude futures (OIL) are pulling back today to around $101 per barrel, signaling growing market hopes for a gradual de-escalation of the conflict between Israel, the US, and Iran. It appears that the frequency of attacks from both sides may begin to decline, which the market could interpret as a potential opening for a ceasefire from Tehran. Comments from Israeli sources suggest that Iran may already be engaged in talks aimed at ending the war. While these reports cannot be independently verified, investors seem to assign a low probability to Iran continuing the conflict once Israel and the US halt their attacks.

According to Bloomberg estimates, it would take around two months of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to cause severe global economic disruption. Markets still see reasons to believe that the passage could be reopened sooner.
The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 20% of the global oil and gas market, with around 20% of that supply flowing to developed economies. Most Asian countries, which rely heavily on imports, maintain reserves covering several months or have access to Russian oil and gas. Europe appears to be the most exposed region.

OIL (H1 timeframe)

Oil prices are gradually cooling, and when comparing recent price increases with RSI, a potential bearish divergence can be observed. If prices fall below $100, the first key support level is seen around $96 per barrel (based on prior price reactions).

Source: xStation5

Estimates from the ISW think tank point to a depletion of Iran’s missile capabilities. According to comments from the US military, Iran’s naval and air force potential, as well as much of its industrial base, has been significantly degraded following nearly 20,000 strikes on various targets across the country by the US and Israel. This may reduce Iran’s willingness to continue the conflict.

Source: ISW

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
_cfuvid
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-22576382-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 729 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
lang
_ttp	Expiration date 389 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 389 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days

Cookie name	Description
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
lang
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days