Morning wrap (29.12.2025)

Futures on the major U.S. indices are starting the final week of 2025 flat, choppily oscillating within +/- 0.15% amid still low liquidity. During the holiday-shortened week, US100, US500 and US30 futures gained about 1.1%, benefiting from the so-called Santa Claus rally. Alongside subdued volumes, market volatility may remain limited until the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, scheduled for tomorrow at 20:00 CET.

Talks between Trump and Zelensky in Florida failed to deliver a breakthrough on the war in Ukraine. Trump said a deal is drawing closer, but key disputes over territorial concessions and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remain unresolved. Ukraine’s president stressed that while around 90% of the peace framework has been agreed, the outstanding issues will determine whether the war ends or drags on.

Investors across Asia-Pacific start the week with mixed sentiment, weighing concerns over subdued growth in China and Japan (HK.cash: -0.5%, JP225: -0.35%, CHN.cash: -0.05%). Losses in China were partly cushioned by government-backed technology stocks, while the Japanese market found support in hopes of BOJ policy normalization. Gains are led by AI- and semiconductor-focused markets in South Korea (KOSPI: +1.9%) and Taiwan (TWI: +0.9%).

Bank of Japan minutes indicate that some members support gradual rate hikes to foster growth and avoid falling behind the curve. The neutral rate remains difficult to pinpoint and policy is still below it. Members highlighted overseas rate shifts, deeply negative real rates even at the current 0.75%, and the need for close monitoring of the economy and markets. They also emphasized the role of fiscal support, the potential for positive real wage growth next year, and vigilance given record levels of investment and profits.

In FX markets, the main move is a rebound in the yen, although limited conviction around the BOJ’s hawkish signals suggests markets remain cautious toward central bank communication (USDJPY: -0.1%, EURJPY: -0.2%, GBPJPY: -0.15%). AUDUSD briefly broke to a 14-month high, while the NZD underperformed all G10 currencies (NZDUSD: -0.15%) amid a broader dollar rebound (USDIDX: +0.1%). EURUSD is flat near 1.175, while EURPLN is unchanged around 4.21.

Precious metals are undergoing a record correction as investors take profits. Palladium has fallen the most (-11.6%), sharply erasing the previous session’s record gains. Platinum is down 5.3%, silver has dropped 3.3% to USD 76, and gold is lower by 1.1% at USD 4,480 per ounce.

Brent and WTI crude are rebounding about 0.7% after the recent pullback (oil around USD 60.80), while natural gas is down 1% despite gains at the open.

Bitcoin is up 2.2% at USD 89,850, while Ethereum gains 2.8% to USD 3,034.