- Despite relative geopolitical calm with the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the market is beginning to focus on the expiration of mutual tariffs between the US and China on July 9.
- Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akazawa, stated that the country cannot accept 25% auto tariffs.
- US stock markets finished mostly flat yesterday: the S&P 500 closed near zero at 6090 points, the Nasdaq gained 0.3%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.25%.
- Asian markets are showing improvement: the Nikkei 225 is up 1.5% and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.1%. However, indexes in Australia, South Korea, and the Hang Seng CE are down 0.5%.
- The sell-off in the US dollar continues, with the EURUSD pair reaching 1.1700, a new high since 2021.
- JP Morgan forecasts a further weakening of the US dollar by over 5% in the next 12 months.
- The USD/CNH pair has fallen to its lowest level since November.
- Jerome Powell stated he is awaiting more clarity on the impact of tariffs on inflation before deciding on further interest rate cuts.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is considering announcing the next Fed Chair as early as this autumn, a move that could undermine Powell's position.
- Nvidia hit a new all-time high of $154 per share yesterday, gaining over 4%.
- Citigroup has raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 5% from 4.7%.
- The Chinese Premier said China will do everything possible to stimulate domestic consumption.
- Today, we will hear from several Fed members, including Barkin, Hammack, and Kashkari. The ECB will be represented by Schnabel, De Guindos, and Lagarde, while the Bank of England's speakers will include Bailey, Breeden, and Rosen.
- Deutsche Bank expects the RBA to cut interest rates in July, while J.P. Morgan anticipates that the Fed will only cut rates in December. Nomura is forecasting rising global yields amid fears of a downturn in economic growth.
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not been seen publicly for over a week. The CIA indicates that Iran's nuclear program has been severely damaged. However, some reports suggest the program was only delayed by a few to several months. The United States has stated that any resumption of uranium enrichment by Iran would be another red line.
- Today's economic calendar includes US jobless claims, durable goods orders, and the final Q1 GDP reading.
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