Morning wrap (17.12.2025)

Futures on major indices are trading in the green, recovering from pressure seen during yesterday’s session, which was triggered by mixed U.S. data (US100: +0.35%, US500: +0.2%, EU50: +0.05%).

Donald Trump announced a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela. He accused Nicolás Maduro’s regime of stealing U.S. assets and financing terrorism and crime with oil revenues, and also signaled an ускорение of deportations of Venezuelan migrants.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is set to interview Christopher Waller, a voting FOMC member, for the position of Fed chair. Waller is seen as the third most likely candidate to succeed Powell (after Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh). Despite support from Wall Street—both futures and the dollar strengthened following the report—his lack of strong personal ties to Trump is seen as significantly reducing his chances.

Warner Bros. Discovery plans to reject a takeover proposal from Paramount, made as a counter to Netflix (premarket: WBD.US: -0.9%, NFLX.US: +1%, PSKY: -0.1%).

Sentiment in Asian markets is moderately positive, with most indices edging higher thanks to a rebound in the technology sector. Gains were capped by uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook following yesterday’s NFP and retail sales data, as well as caution ahead of key inflation releases. CHN.cash and HK.cash are leading gains (up 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively), snapping a three-day selloff. JP225 is also higher (+0.1%), while AU200.cash is flat, pointing to a restrained risk appetite.

Japan recorded its first trade surplus since June in November, reaching JPY 322.2bn (forecast: JPY 71.2bn; prior: -JPY 226.1bn). Export growth (+6.1%) was supported by a weak yen, recovering U.S. demand, and lower-than-expected tariffs, while sluggish import growth (+1.3%) reflected weak domestic demand. In addition, core machinery orders surged well above expectations to their highest level since September 2022 (+12.5% vs forecast 3.6%, prior 11.6%), sending another signal of rising capital expenditure among Japanese firms.

New Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said she would use all available tools—including LTV and DTI limits—if needed to curb a housing market boom or mitigate a potential downturn. She also stressed the importance of transparency, noting that markets reacted more strongly than expected to the RBNZ’s latest decision and that further rate cuts remain possible.

In FX markets, the U.S. dollar index (USDIDX) is rebounding 0.2% after briefly touching its lowest level since October, supported by the WSJ report on Waller. The Japanese yen is correcting after a run of gains against most G10 currencies (USDJPY: +0.4%, EURJPY: +0.2%). EURUSD is down 0.2% at 1.172.

Brent and WTI crude are rebounding about 1.2% from a four-year low hit yesterday, supported by the U.S. blockade of tankers traveling to and from Venezuela. Natural gas is trading flat.

Silver is resuming its euphoric rally, adding another 3.7% to reach a new all-time high near USD 66 per ounce. Gold is up 0.6% at USD 4,330 per ounce, while platinum is also breaking out, rising 3.6%.

Cryptocurrencies are dominated by pessimism. Bitcoin is down 1.1% at USD 86,880, while Ethereum falls 0.6% to USD 2,940.