- Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region posted mixed results today, as investors took a cautious approach following the release of weaker-than-expected data from the Chinese economy. The continued pressure on sentiment was mainly related to disappointing industrial and services activity. With much uncertainty, investors await Wednesday's Fed decision on interest rates.
- Chinese data for August disappointed: industrial production +5.2% y/y (forecast 5.8%, lowest growth in 12 months), retail sales +3.4% (forecast 3.8%, weakest since November 2024), fixed asset investment +0.5% YTD (forecast 1.4%, lowest in 5 years), real estate investment -12.9%, and the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% (6-month high).
- The Financial Times reports that no significant progress has been made in trade and fentanyl talks between the US and China. This increases the likelihood that a possible summit in Beijing will not take place any time soon.
- Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+, while changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable." Valuations of French OAT bonds reacted by falling in the secondary market.
- New Zealand's services PMI index for August fell to 47.5 from 48.9 in July - a level that marks a deepening contraction in the sector and the 18th consecutive month below 50 points; the historical average is 52.9, with business activity dragged down by inflation, high rates, weak demand and political and cost uncertainty.
- European index futures suggest a moderately positive opening to today's cash session. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up about 0.3%, after the index itself ended Friday's trading with a slight increase of 0.1%.
- In the foreign exchange market, the DXY dollar index is holding steady and volatility remains limited. Investors are expecting calm trading ahead of an intense week in which central bank decisions and speeches will play a key role.
- U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he is ready to impose strong sanctions on Russia, but only after all NATO countries take similar action. An additional condition is to be the full departure of allies from Russian oil imports.
- The energy commodities market itself is doing noticeably better this morning. WTI crude oil prices are up 0.85%, as is NATGAS.
- Gold is gaining minimally and remains in the zone of historical peaks.
- Today's macro calendar includes data on German wholesale prices for August and the New York manufacturing index for September. Markets will also listen to speeches by ECB representatives Schnabel, Rehn and Governor Christine Lagarde.
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