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Futures on US indices slightly down: Both US100 and US500 loses 0.15% and today markets will focus on US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, US retail sales and PPI data from the US. Also, investors await US banks earnings (Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank od America) and numerous Fed members speeches (Paulson, Kashkarki, Bostic, Williams)
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S&P 500 under pressure despite lower CPI data: Yesterday, U.S. stocks drifted lower after the latest inflation print largely reinforced the view that the Fed can afford to stay patient, while a selloff in bank shares; led by JPMorgan after results fell short of what investors were looking for, weighed on broader sentiment. JP Morgan's shares were down 4% after investment-banking revenue missed expectations amid softer underwriting and M&A advisory activity. Even with a cooler-than-forecast core CPI reading and markets still points to the next realistic Fed cut only around mid-2026.
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Risk appetite stayed firmly in control: despite S&P 500 falling from historic high, global equities are on track to finish at fresh record highs as the latest U.S. inflation print eased fears of sticky price pressures, while investors continued to crowd into the AI-led rally; metals clearly outperformed the broader commodity complex.
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MSCI ACWI pushed higher, with Asia doing heavy lifting: the MSCI All Country World Index extended its year-to-date advance, helped by a key Asia equity gauge hitting a new all-time high; Japan rallied, while the yen hovered near its weakest level since July 2024 amid reports of a potential snap election.
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AI proxies kept running, China lagged: South Korea, often treated as a bellwether for AI-linked supply chains, rose for a ninth straight session, while Chinese equities slipped after authorities raised the margin-financing requirement to 100%, a move that typically cools leverage-driven buying.
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Precious and industrial metals stole the show: silver broke above $90/oz for the first time,spot gold printed a new record, and copper rebounded to fresh highs, reinforcing the narrative that metals are leading the commodity tape. Silver is up almost 4%, while gold gains more than 1%
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Crypto joined the “risk-on” bid: Bitcoin participated in the upbeat mood, climbing to a two-month high, while European equity-index futures are today modestly higher ahead of the session.
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Japan remained the macro focal point: reports that PM Takaichi may call a snap election boosted equities but pressured bonds, pushing the yen deeper into the zone where intervention risk becomes a live market topic; Japan’s 5-year JGB yield jumped to its highest level since that maturity was introduced in 2000.
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Oil cooled after a sharp run: crude prices stabilized following the strongest four-day rally in more than six months, suggesting the market paused to digest gains rather than extend the move.
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Dollar held firm; Fed expectations stayed intact: the greenback maintained the prior session’s strength, and the December U.S. inflation data did little to derail hopes that the Fed could pause rate cuts rather than rush to ease further.
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Restrictions on Nvidia's H200: Chinese companies will be required to implement special security procedures if they want to purchase Nvidia’s H200 chips, according to information confirmed by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Restrictions will also apply on the U.S. side: Nvidia will first have to ensure sufficient domestic supply of H200 chips in the United States, and the chips exported to China will be capped so that they cannot exceed 50% of the volume shipped to the U.S. domestic market.
US API data: U.S. API data pointed to a sharp build in petroleum inventories on January 13, with crude oil stocks rising by 5.27M barrels (vs. -2.8M previously), while gasoline inventories surged by 8.23M barrels (vs. +4.4M previously) and distillate stocks increased by 4.34M barrels (vs. +4.9M previously); Cushing inventories also rose by 0.945M barrels (vs. +0.7M previously), reinforcing a near-term supply-heavy signal for the U.S. market.
MIDDAY WRAP: Mixed sentiment in Europe, declines on U.S. indices
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