Morning wrap (08.04.2026)

Across the broader market, we are seeing a reversal of moves from the past month today. Trump announced a two-week pause in military actions to allow negotiations with Iran. Markets reacted extremely positively: oil prices fell, the USD weakened, while equities and gold rallied. The proposal is based on a 10-point Iranian plan considered “workable.”

US index futures are gaining between 2.50–3.10%, the USDIDX dollar index is down 0.90%, gold is up 2.26%, while Brent and WTI crude are down 10.30% and 12.80% respectively to 94 and 95 USD per barrel.

Iran is demanding, among other things, full sanctions relief, continued regional influence, and control over transit through Hormuz. These conditions are seen by the US as difficult to accept. The gap between the two sides undermines the chances of a lasting agreement. Even though the ceasefire may prove to be a tactical pause, market reaction has been decisive.

Even in the case of a ceasefire, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may remain limited to 10–15 ships per day. This would imply continued bottlenecks and supply issues. Iran may also introduce fees and control over transit. This suggests that supply growth could remain structurally constrained.

Israel signaled that the ceasefire does not apply to its operations in Lebanon. Authorities appear reluctant to fully align with the US–Iran de-escalation process.

Iran confirmed that talks will take place in Islamabad on April 10. Pakistan is acting as a key mediator. The timeline indicates a narrow window to reach an agreement. The outcome of these talks will be crucial for the дальней course of the conflict.

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson pointed to rising inflation risks alongside a weakening labor market. Higher oil prices are complicating the monetary policy outlook. The Fed is signaling patience and a likely hold on rates.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates at 2.25% but warned of rising inflation and slowing growth. Inflation could reach around 4.2% due to higher energy prices. The bank remains ready to hike if inflation pressures persist.

Real wages in Japan are rising at the fastest pace in five years, strengthening the case for further BOJ rate hikes.

Anthropic has paused the public release of an advanced AI model due to cybersecurity risks. The model is capable of detecting vulnerabilities at unprecedented speed. It is being deployed selectively to strengthen defense systems.