Morning wrap (05.01.2026)

Over the weekend, Maduro was detained in a military operation. Trump stated that the US now has “full access” to Venezuelan resources and wants US oil companies to return to the country. Only minor damage was reported at the La Guaira port infrastructure, while PDVSA production remained intact.

Russia and EU officials issued warnings regarding sovereignty and called for restraint.

Oil prices experienced sharp swings — early losses were recovered before prices slid again. At the time of writing, oil is down 0.55%. Concerns over Venezuelan supply disruptions have eased, as production and exports have largely remained unaffected. Trump also suggested potential action toward Colombia and reiterated warnings toward Mexico, citing cartel activity. Markets are pricing higher regional risk premiums, but see limited short-term impact on the oil market given Venezuela’s output of <1 mb/d. Event risk remains largely dependent on political stability following the coup.

Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty over the weekend, precious metals reacted the strongest. Gold rebounded more than 2.05% to 4,420 USD per ounce, followed by gains in silver (+3.90%), palladium (+2.20%) and platinum (+3.80%).

An OPEC+ meeting also took place over the weekend. The group confirmed that production levels will be maintained unchanged, reinforcing the message that the market remains well supplied despite geopolitical risk. Eight oil producers confirmed a pause for Q1 2026, citing seasonal demand weakness and a “balanced” market. Voluntary cuts totaling 1.65 mb/d remain in reserve for potential gradual reinstatement.

Japan’s final manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 (November: 48.7), ending a five-month contraction spell. New orders declined at the slowest pace in 19 months and output stabilized. Employment increased for the fourth straight month, although input prices accelerated to the fastest pace since April.

China’s services PMI fell to 52.0, marking a fourth consecutive month of slowdown. Export demand weakened and job reductions persisted, although expectations for 2026 improved.

BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed readiness to continue rate hikes if growth and inflation develop in line with projections. Confidence is growing in the durability of the wage–price cycle, with policy normalization framed as gradual. Despite this, the JPY remains one of the weaker G10 currencies today; USDJPY is up 0.21%.

The cryptocurrency market is advancing, with Bitcoin climbing back above 90,000 USD — up 1.00% to 92,400 USD — while Ethereum gains 1.45% to 3,150 USD. PwC signaled deeper engagement with the crypto sector amid clearer US regulatory conditions under the GENIUS Act.