EURUSD gained 0.3% today, climbing above the 1.18 level, supported by signs of a weakening U.S. labor market and yesterday’s weak NY Fed Manufacturing data. Investors are now focused on today’s U.S. retail sales report (12:30 PM GMT) and tomorrow’s Fed decision (6 PM GMT). Markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least three times in 2025 and four times in 2026.
In contrast, the European Central Bank signaled that the “disinflationary process” in Europe has ended, suggesting it may not ease policy as aggressively as the Fed. For today, investors anticipate higher U.S. retail sales on a monthly basis (0.2% vs. 0.5% expected, while core sales are seen at 0.4% vs. 0.3% previously). If the reading will be weaker, we can expect a rise in EURUSD. As we can see on the chart, EURUSD is surging today to levels non seen since June, near 1.18. Source: xStation5
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Source: xStation5
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