Morning market sentiment is being shaped by renewed concerns over the pace of economic growth in the euro area and the persistence of inflation. Investors are assessing yesterday’s mixed PMI readings, looking for further clues about the next steps from central banks. Today’s session will bring several important releases from European economies, including Germany’s final GDP reading and the Ifo Business Climate Index. Later in the day, attention will shift to the US, where housing market data and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be in focus and could trigger increased volatility in EUR/USD and Wall Street indices.
Key Releases from the Asian Session
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of its August meeting, pointing to continued hawkish vigilance amid persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in the labour market.
Macroeconomic Calendar
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08:00 Germany – Final GDP q/q: Latest reading: 0.3%. Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.4%.
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08:00 Germany – Final GDP n.s.a. y/y: Latest reading: 1.0%. Consensus: 0.9%. Previous: 0.8%.
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08:45 France – Consumer Confidence Index. Consensus: 87. Previous: 86.
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09:30 Sweden – Riksbank Meeting Minutes.
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09:30 Poland – Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 5.9%. Previous: 5.8%.
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10:00 Germany – Ifo Business Climate Index. Consensus: 87.1. Previous: 86.6.
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14:00 Hungary – Interest Rate Decision. Consensus: 5.50%. Previous: 5.75%.
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14:00 US – Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks.
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16:00 US – New Home Sales. Consensus: 620K. Previous: 628K.
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16:00 US – Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Consensus: 90.2. Previous: 90.8.
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16:00 US – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Consensus: 7. Previous: 5.
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22:00 US – Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks.
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22:40 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories. Consensus: +0.5M barrels. Previous: -0.33M barrels.
3 Markets to Watch
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EUR/USD – in focus due to the morning batch of German data, including GDP and the Ifo Business Climate Index, followed by US housing and consumer confidence data in the afternoon.
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DAX (DE40) – sensitive to the Ifo Business Climate Index and Germany’s final GDP reading, which will provide further insight into the health of the economy and the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
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Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) – the market will be influenced by the evening API inventory report, as well as broader sentiment surrounding demand in the world’s largest economies.
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