The European Central Bank press conference is just beginning, led by President Christine Lagarde, who will comment on today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors will be particularly focused on how the central bank is positioning itself in response to risks stemming from the war in the Middle East. Key remarks below:
- Risks for the growth outlook is headed to the downside in the near term, driven by the Middle East war. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
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Core inflation indicators are consistent with the 2% target
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Swift adoption of digital euro legislation is essential
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Any fiscal response to an energy shock should be temporary, targeted, and tailored
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The war is disrupting commodity markets and weighing on confidence
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Investment should increase. Economic growth is driven by the services sector
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Russian war with the Ukraine is another source of the uncertainty
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Defense spending will be the growth driver - larger than expected, also for the tech sector
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Lower tariffs in the end and faster than expected stop of the Middle East escalation may lead to improving economy and inflation fall
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