Daily  summary: The US celebrates Independence Day, Europe rebounds

US

• The US market did not trade today due to the holiday, which significantly reduced volume and volatility. Futures point to a moderate improvement in sentiment after yesterday’s declines; US100 closed up 1.18%.

Company news, US:

• Anthropic reportedly took steps to curb “scalping” of data and algorithms by Chinese firms. At the same time, Alibaba banned the use of Claude internally, citing “security concerns.”
• A funeral was held in Iran for the previous “Supreme Leader,” where, according to media reports, many Iranian government officials appeared who had not been seen in public for months. The market is treating this as confirmation that the US-Iran conflict has ended.
• According to Reuters, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly said that the development of agentic AI is progressing more slowly than expected. At the same time, Meta’s head of “Superintelligence,” Alexander Wang, publicly announced that the company’s internal AI models have caught up with industry leaders’ products - OpenAI and Anthropic.
• Michael Burry announced he has taken a short position in Micron, citing valuations disconnected from fundamentals and the company’s cyclical nature.
• Donald Trump gave an interview on CNBC. Among the market-relevant statements, the US president said his goal is for “40–60% of global chip production to be located in the US,” and that “US GDP growth should be around 12–13%.”
• The president also said he intends to continue efforts to remove Lisa Cook (Fed) from her position following a court ruling.
• Tesla and Apple are supporting valuations of Chinese companies that supply these conglomerates. Chinese firms are seeing rising demand and production among selected companies.

Europe

• The European market is torn between ongoing de-escalation on the US-Iran front, concerns about gas inventories, and ECB policy. Most European indices end the day higher. Among European index futures, SPA35 and NED25 lead gains, up more than 1%.

Company news, Europe:

• European gas prices rose to their highest levels in three weeks. This is due to concerns about low inventories in Europe, especially given the extreme temperatures across the continent.
• European semiconductor leaders are gaining. ASML, Nokia, STM, and ASM are up more than 3% on expectations of further orders from Asia and the US. Many analysts note that Europe may be particularly well positioned for further gains: the EU’s unique economic structure allows it to capture a range of benefits from expanding AI infrastructure while avoiding high costs.
• Auto1 shares are up more than 5%. The German used-car seller received a recommendation from JP Morgan. The investment bank points to several improving operating metrics.
• Critical Metals and European Lithium Limited signed an updated version of their agreement regarding the purchase of the European company. Both stocks are down more than 2%.

Forex

• The biggest moves in FX are in AUDUSD and GBPJPY. Relatively high inflation in the UK and Australia is forcing the market to price in higher interest rates. These currencies are up about 0.2% against the rest of the major currency basket.

Commodities

• Volatility in commodities is limited by the lack of trading in the US.
  • Silver and zinc are up (+2%)
  • Natural gas and gold are up (+1%)

Crypto

• A clear improvement in sentiment is visible in crypto, with broad-based gains across the market.
  • Bitcoin is up about 1% and is back above USD 62,000
  • Ethereum and Chainlink are up 2% each.