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The European trading session ended lower, with selling pressure dominating almost from the start. Germany’s DAX fell nearly 0.6%, France’s CAC40 declined about 0.8%, and the UK’s FTSE slipped more than 0.3%. German retail sales (seasonally adjusted, m/m) for July dropped by 1.5% versus expectations of -0.4% and the previous reading of 1%. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 1.9%, below the forecast of 2.6% and the prior 4.9%.
In the US, major indices are also under pressure in the final session of the week. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) is down more than 1.2%, with the US30 and US500 also losing ground. Technology shares are weighing on the market, led by sharp declines in semiconductors and software.
- Nvidia is down over 3%, Taiwan Semiconductor is showing similar losses, Broadcom is down more than 4%, while Oracle has dropped nearly 6.5%. The best-performing sectors today are energy (despite modest declines in oil and gas prices) and healthcare.
- Today’s US data came in mixed. The PCE inflation reading matched forecasts, while personal income and spending also showed no surprises. However, the University of Michigan survey pointed to weaker consumer sentiment and lower inflation expectations.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August): 58.2 (forecast 58.6; previous 58.6)
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Current Conditions: 61.7 (forecast 60.8; previous 60.9)
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Expectations: 55.9 (forecast 57.5; previous 57.2)
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1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (forecast 5.0%; previous 4.9%)
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5–10 Year Inflation Expectations: 3.5% (forecast 3.9%; previous 3.9%)
US Data (July):
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PCE Price Index YoY: 2.6% (forecast 2.6%; previous 2.6%)
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PCE MoM: 0.2% (forecast 0.2%; previous 0.3%)
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Core PCE YoY: 2.9% (forecast 2.9%; previous 2.8%)
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Consumer Spending MoM: 0.5% (forecast 0.5%; previous 0.3%)
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Personal Income MoM: 0.4% (forecast 0.4%; previous 0.3%)
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Real Personal Consumption MoM: 0.3% (forecast 0.3%; previous 0.1%)
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Retail Inventories ex-auto (prelim): 0.1% (previous -0.1%)
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Wholesale Inventories MoM (prelim): 0.2% (forecast 0.1%; previous 0.1%)
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Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$103.60B (forecast -$90.2B; previous -$84.85B)
- The US dollar is down nearly 0.1%, while the EURUSD is gaining. Precious metals are rallying, with gold up more than 0.8% to above $3,450/oz and silver breaking levels not seen since autumn 2011, trading near $40/oz.
- In agricultural commodities, corn is in focus, rising after Pro Farmer data pointed to harvests below USDA projections and following the latest COT report, which showed managed money funds increasing long positions while cutting a significant number of shorts.
- On the cryptocurrency market, losses dominate. Bitcoin has retreated to $108,000, with most altcoins, including Ethereum and Dogecoin, also under pressure.
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