Daily Summary: Markets Explode 🚀 Investors Price in the End of the War 🤝

🕌 Middle East — Euphoric Signal from Tehran

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a statement on Tuesday that immediately electrified global markets: Tehran declared its readiness to end the conflict — but only in exchange for formal security guarantees protecting the country from future attacks. Investors interpreted this as the first genuine diplomatic signal from Tehran and immediately began unwinding the geopolitical risk premium. The Dow Jones briefly surged more than 1,100 points in response to the news.

President Trump confirmed in an interview with the New York Post that the conflict "won't last much longer" and expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened by other nations without further US military involvement. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump signaled willingness to end military hostilities even if the Strait remained partially closed. Markets are treating these developments as another piece of the puzzle pointing toward de-escalation.

⚠️ Middle East — IRGC Threats Against Big Tech

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a sharp warning naming 18 US technology firms — including Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel, and Boeing — as "legitimate military targets." The IRGC directly accused the ICT and AI sector of participating in the planning of operations against Iran, marking an unprecedented direct indictment of the civilian tech industry. Attacks on the facilities of these companies in the region are reportedly set to begin as early as April 1st. Stocks initially sold off on the back of this statement, but subsequent comments from both presidents more than reversed that move.

📈 Market Sentiment — Substantial Euphoria

Wall Street closes Tuesday with a strong rally: the Dow Jones gained nearly 980 points (+2.2%), the S&P 500 rose 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.6%. Big Tech rebounded broadly and decisively — Meta surged more than 6%, Google gained nearly 5%, Nvidia climbed close to 5%, and Palantir jumped over 6%. The technology sector, which has been under the most pressure since the conflict began, posted one of its best single-day performances in weeks.

The VIX volatility index pulled back more than 4 points to around 26, signaling some stabilization in sentiment — though analysts caution against premature optimism. Despite today's rebound, the S&P 500 is down more than 5% in March — its worst monthly performance since 2022 — with 10 out of 11 index sectors set to end March in negative territory.

The only sector ending March in the green is energy — up more than 12.5% for the month, benefiting directly from higher oil prices and supply disruptions. The Nasdaq is the weakest index on a quarterly basis, shedding more than 7%, the S&P 500 lost 5%, and the Dow is down about 4% — making Q1 2026 one of the most challenging quarters for equity markets in recent years.

🏭 Macro Data — United States

The February JOLTS report showed 6.882 million job openings — marginally below expectations of 6.890 million and well below the revised January reading of 7.24 million. The quits rate fell to 1.9%, while layoffs rose to 1.721 million — both signals pointing to a gradual cooling of the labor market and normalization following post-pandemic overheating. Markets are watching these prints closely ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting.

The March Conference Board Consumer Confidence index surprised to the upside: a reading of 91.8 versus expectations of 87.9, suggesting that consumers — at least in sentiment surveys — remain relatively resilient despite the conflict's escalation. This is a notable signal given that US gasoline prices crossed $4 per gallon today for the first time since August 2022.

🌍 Macro Data — Europe and China

Eurozone inflation accelerated in March to 2.5% from 1.9% the previous month — the largest monthly jump since 2022, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This complicates the ECB's task, as it must now balance curbing inflation against supporting a slowing economy.

China surprised to the upside: the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 (previously 49.0) and the services PMI climbed to 50.1 (previously 49.5) — both readings above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction, and above consensus. A shadow is cast over these figures, however, by warnings from Chinese suppliers announcing price hikes on goods due to oil price volatility — which could soon translate into renewed global inflationary pressures.

🏢 Corporates — Oracle and the AI-Driven Layoff Wave

Oracle has begun a new round of layoffs numbering in the thousands — unofficial sources suggest as many as 30,000 positions could be cut out of a workforce of 162,000. The company has been aggressively investing in data center infrastructure capable of handling AI workloads, and rising capital expenditures need to be funded — workforce reduction becomes the obvious lever. Despite the absence of an official company statement, Oracle shares rose during the session, recovering part of the 27% loss recorded year-to-date.

💊 Corporates — M&A Wave

McCormick is trading higher after Unilever confirmed advanced talks regarding a merger of its food division with the spice maker in a deal valued at approximately $44.8 billion in total. The structure calls for $15.7 billion in upfront cash, with the remainder settled in McCormick shares — upon completion, Unilever and its shareholders would hold 65% of the combined company.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals is posting one of the session's largest single-day gains after Biogen announced its acquisition of the company for $5.6 billion in cash, aimed at strengthening its portfolio in immunology and rare diseases. Eli Lilly is acquiring Centessa Pharmaceuticals — a developer of treatments for excessive daytime sleepiness — for $38 per share in cash plus contingent value rights, with the total deal value potentially reaching $7.8 billion. Lilly continues to consolidate its leadership position in central nervous system disorders.

💻 Corporates — AI, Tech and Others

Marvell Technology surged sharply after Nvidia announced a $2 billion strategic investment in the company — the partnership aims to integrate Marvell's chips into Nvidia's AI Factory and AI-RAN ecosystems via NVLink Fusion technology. This marks another step in Nvidia's effort to build a closed-loop AI infrastructure ecosystem, reinforcing its dominant market position while simultaneously creating value for key partners.

Snap jumped more than 12% after Bloomberg reported that activist investor Irenic Capital Management is building a stake in the company — in a public letter to CEO Evan Spiegel, Irenic outlined a path to a valuation of $26.37, compared to around $4.50 at midday. Phreesia posted one of the session's steepest declines after drastically cutting its full-year revenue guidance well below consensus. Nike edged higher in cautious anticipation of quarterly earnings due after the closing bell.

💱 FX — EUR Dominates, USD Under Pressure

The euro is by far the strongest currency of the day — EURUSD is up nearly 0.8% to 1.1552, with the currency strength meter placing EUR firmly at the top. The dollar is losing ground on a broad front: the DXY (USDIDX) falls 0.69% to around 99.7, USDJPY retreats 0.58% to 158.80, and USDPLN loses 0.68% to 3.7142. The Japanese yen and British pound (+0.47% vs. USD to 1.3243) are gaining as currencies perceived as safer in conditions of de-escalation.

In regional FX, EURPLN is trading at 4.2910 (+0.19%) — the zloty benefits from dollar weakness, though gains against the euro remain contained. The Swiss franc, contrary to its traditional safe-haven role, is one of the weakest currencies of the day — confirming that today's move is primarily an unwinding of geopolitical risk premium rather than a classic flight to safety.

🛢️ Commodities — Oil Retreats on Peace Signals

Crude oil is pulling back sharply following comments from both presidents — Brent (OIL CFD) loses nearly 3.8% to $104.50 per barrel, while WTI falls 2.8% to around $102.00. The market has begun unwinding the geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices following Pezeshkian's declaration of willingness to end the conflict and Trump's assurances that the US will exit the region soon and expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. This is a textbook reaction in energy commodity markets to de-escalation signals — any step toward unblocking the shipping lane immediately weighs on oil prices.

Gold rises more than 3.3% to a record $4,660 per ounce, while silver surges 6.6% to $74.7 — both precious metals benefiting primarily from the sharp reversal in USD strength seen across the Forex market today.