- The conflict in the Persian Gulf is intensifying. Israel, together with the United States, continues missile strikes on Iran under Operation “Epic Fury.” In response, Iran is shelling U.S. military bases in the Middle East and threatening oil installations in Gulf countries.
- President Donald Trump described the operation as proceeding satisfactorily and stated that military actions could last between four and five weeks, adding that the largest strikes are still ahead.
- Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Formally, the strait remains open, and the United States emphasizes that Iran lacks the real capability to block it. Nevertheless, vessels are avoiding entry into Hormuz, increasing tensions in oil markets and disrupting crude transport logistics.
- The effects of the Persian Gulf conflict have spilled over to Wall Street. Major U.S. indices posted significant losses. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down 1.1%, the Nasdaq 1.2%, and the Dow Jones around 1%. Earlier in the session, losses exceeded 2%, although part of the sell-off was later trimmed.
- European markets were also hit by the wave of risk aversion. All major indices closed sharply lower. The UK’s FTSE 100 fell more than 2.7%, France’s CAC 40 dropped nearly 3.5%, Germany’s DAX declined 3.6%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 lost over 4.5%.
- According to the latest reports, Spain refused to allow the United States to use its military bases for operations against Iran. In response, the U.S. president announced the suspension of trade relations with Spain.
- In the forex market, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against other major currencies. Seen as a safe haven, it is attracting capital amid rising uncertainty. In times like these, the “cash is king” sentiment becomes clearly visible, as markets seek safety and liquidity in the dollar.
- According to the latest data, annual inflation in the euro area accelerated to 1.9% in February, exceeding market expectations of 1.7%. Core HICP inflation also rose to 2.4% year-over-year (vs. 2.2% forecast), highlighting persistent price pressures in the economy. On a monthly basis, HICP increased by 0.7% and core HICP by 0.8%, while markets had expected declines.
- Precious metals are under heavy pressure. At the time of writing, gold is down nearly 4%, testing the $5,100 per ounce level. Silver is falling close to 7%, trading around $83 per ounce. Palladium is down 6.2% to $1,650 per ounce, while platinum is losing more than 8.5%, hovering near $2,100 per ounce.
- Crude oil, on the other hand, is gaining value in response to the escalation of the conflict. Brent crude contracts are up about 4% and testing the $80 per barrel level, while WTI crude is up about 4.5% to $74 per barrel. At the peak of today's session, the gains exceeded 5%.
- If the conflict deepens and leads to tangible supply disruptions in the region, oil prices could surpass the psychological $100 per barrel level, further intensifying inflationary pressures and increasing risks to global economic growth.
- Cryptocurrencies are also under pressure. Bitcoin is down around 1%, trading below $69,000. Ethereum is performing even worse, falling more than 2.8% and slipping below the $2,000 level.
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