- Iran has explicitly rejected Trump’s 15-point plan, which was intended to secure at least a ceasefire in the Middle East. While the full plan has not been made public (it was conveyed to Iran via Pakistan), it likely contains demands for Iran to abandon its nuclear program, allow IAEA inspectors, and grant full freedom of navigation. In return, the US and Israel would cease attacks and partially lift sanctions on oil and gas trade.
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Donald Trump alluded to a "great energy gift" from Iran. While he provided no specifics, this likely refers to Iranian crude oil sales to India.
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Iran maintains that it intends to end this war on its own terms and at a time it deems appropriate. Authorities indicate they are not interested in a mere ceasefire but rather a comprehensive peace that respects their conditions, such as reparations for damages, a total US withdrawal from the region, and the full lifting of sanctions.
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A recent report indicates an attack on an Iranian nuclear power plant occurred on Tuesday. This situation shows that despite US "restraint," critical infrastructure continues to be targeted, which may signal full-scale escalation if no agreement is reached within the timeframe Trump offered to Iran.
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WTI crude oil is consolidating above $88 per barrel, while Brent crude is trading above $95 per barrel.
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A nearly 7 million barrel build in US crude inventories did not lead to a price correction. Oil is currently reacting to the lack of de-escalation and remains near the lows of the last two sessions.
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Gold prices continue their rebound, trading above $4,500 per ounce as the chances of a sustained inflation spike diminish. Despite Iran’s rejection of the peace plan, it is evident that at least one side is pushing aggressively toward ending the conflict.
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EURUSD is retreating from the 1.1500 level due to the further escalation in the Middle East. We are also seeing a decline in US and German yields during today’s session.
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Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, with an increase of approximately 1%.
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US import prices rose significantly in February, even before the conflict in Iran began. Prices rose 1.3% MoM (against expectations of 0.5%), while export prices also surged 1.5% MoM (against expectations of 0.5%).
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UK inflation for February held steady at 3.0% YoY, matching expectations, but core inflation rose to 3.2% YoY. In the UK, much like in the Eurozone, markets are pricing in a high probability of interest rate hikes.
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Arm shares are up as much as 15% today following a total change in the company’s strategy. Instead of licensing its designs, the company intends to begin producing its own AGI CPU processors. The company is targeting $15 billion in annual revenue from these chips, with Meta expected to be its first customer.
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Gains on Wall Street remain limited, including within the tech sector. Of note is a growing shortage of products like helium, which is critical not only for medicine but also for chip manufacturing; this could impact the supply chains of companies such as TSMC and Nvidia.
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