Commodity wrap (10.06.2025) - Oil, Silver, Gold, Cocoa

Oil

• OPEC+ is currently maintaining its strategy of increasing oil production by 411,000 barrels per day. Production is planned to be raised by the same amount in July.
• Since the beginning of the production restoration, OPEC+ has theoretically increased output for July by nearly 1.4 million barrels per day and is on track to fully offset voluntary production cuts over the next three months.
• As a result, oil prices remain relatively low despite rising seasonal demand.
• This situation has led to a slight decline in U.S. crude oil inventories in recent weeks, although seasonality suggests larger declines in the near future. This is linked to a drop in U.S. exports, primarily to Europe, which has access to greater quantities of Arabian crude or oil from other Asian countries like Kazakhstan, which also participates in the OPEC+ agreement.
• Seasonal declines in oil inventories usually continue until early autumn, when refinery maintenance takes place.

U.S. crude oil inventories have slightly decreased but have remained relatively stable for about 2-3 months. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Comparative inventories have recently indicated that oil prices are too low. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Prices have rebounded in recent weeks and are beginning to approach the 5-year average again. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Silver

• Silver has reached its highest levels since 2012, driven by perceptions of gold as an expensive metal. Alongside this, there is also a noticeable increase in demand for platinum, which is the best-performing metal this year.
• The Silver Institute forecasts another deficit in 2025. This would be the fifth consecutive year of deficit excluding ETF investments, and the seventh consecutive year including ETF investments.
• Supply is expected to increase slightly by about 2%, similar to last year, while demand is theoretically expected to fall slightly (though it would rise if ETF investments are included).
• It is noted that demand for silver would be significantly higher if taxation on silver changed, as most European countries maintain VAT on silver purchases.
• The main driver of silver demand remains industrial use, accounting for about 70%.
• The gold-to-silver price ratio has recently fallen from around 100 to nearly 90. Long-term averages hover closer to 60-70, indicating that silver potentially has considerable room for price growth.

Another strong silver market deficit is expected in 2025. Source: Silver Institute

Industrial demand for silver has been rising year-on-year. Five years ago, it was about 50%, now around 70%. Therefore, silver behaves differently from gold. Source: Silver Institute

ETF funds have resumed buying silver, though the buying spree is far from the one seen in 2020. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

The gold-to-silver price ratio is clearly decreasing. The 10-year moving average is around 81, which at current gold prices would imply a silver price of $41 per ounce. The average since 2004 suggests a level of 69, which would correspond to $48 per ounce for silver. Based on the long-term average and the current gold price of $3333 per ounce, silver should be priced at $62 per ounce, which would be a new historical high. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Silver shows a slight overbought signal when looking at the 100-period moving average, deviating from the average by 3 standard deviations. Historically, an extreme overbought signal was at 5 standard deviations. For the one-year average, the deviation is just under 3 standard deviations, while overbought signals often occur between 4-5 standard deviations. For the 5-year average, the signal was at the 5-year average, and currently, silver is 3 standard deviations above that level ($25.4). Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Gold

• Gold remains at high levels due to uncertainties regarding global international trade. Talks between the U.S. and China are ongoing, but the suspension of mutual tariffs by the U.S. expires at the beginning of July.
• China continues to buy gold, increasing reserves for the seventh consecutive month in May.
• Gold does not react strongly to reports on U.S. interest rate prospects. Inflation uncertainty, which may lead to rates being held steady for longer, is more significant.
• No rate cuts are expected at the Federal Reserve meetings in June and July (though this depends on trade developments). The earliest possible rate cut is September, with the market currently pricing in a probability slightly above 70%.

After many weeks of declines, net gold positions have finally rebounded, mainly due to a decrease in short positions, while the increase in long positions is modest. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Gold is trading at $3333 per ounce, slightly above the 25-period moving average. Around $3250 is the 50-period moving average, which has been a key support level since the beginning of the year. Source: xStation5

Cocoa

• Cocoa prices remain above $10,000 per ton, amid continued stock increases that have persisted since a more than 20-year low reached in January.
• The price is just before rolling over, and the new contract will open approximately $600-700 lower, considering the extreme backwardation.
• Rainfall is expected to continue in West African countries in the coming days, which could theoretically put downward pressure on cocoa prices when transitioning to the new contract.
• The current July contract is rolling over to the September contract, which better reflects expected fundamentals for the main season starting in October.
• Deliveries to ports in Ivory Coast since the season began have already reached 1.64 million tons, compared to 1.53 million tons previously. Weekly deliveries amounted to nearly 19,000 tons.

Recently, the spread between the nearest contracts has widened significantly, indicating short-term spot market demand. At the same time, lower prices for the September contract may reflect greater certainty about higher supply. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB