Chart of the day: US100 (15.10.2025)

Nasdaq 100 futures are rebounding about 0.9% after yesterday’s sell-off, largely driven by escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. The market quickly shifted focus away from trade concerns and returned to gains following the Fed Chair’s recent speech, which anchored expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. Optimism is also supported by earnings from key companies and new developments in the technology sector.

The US100 contract has today crossed both the 100- and 30-period exponential moving averages on the H4 chart (EMA100 – dark purple, EMA30 – light purple), recovering all losses from yesterday’s session. Source: xStation5

What is shaping US100 today?

• During yesterday’s speech, Jerome Powell spent significant time discussing the rising risk of a weak labor market, which investors interpreted as a dovish signal indicating another potential interest rate cut in the U.S. The swap market had already priced in a 25 bp cut in October with near 100% certainty, but the informal confirmation from the Fed Chair helped anchor expectations and generate optimism in the equity market. Powell emphasized that the Fed cannot act too quickly in the final stages of fighting inflation. Nevertheless, slowing labor demand and staffing challenges arising from migration policies represent a significant growth risk, suggesting that monetary policy should gradually become less restrictive.

• ASML results confirm strong investment demand for AI infrastructure, supporting technology stocks, particularly semiconductors, despite ongoing AI bubble speculation. The company reported orders of €5.4 billion (forecast: €4.9 billion), highlighting growth in the client base adopting AI-based technologies. The share of sales in China also increased significantly (from 27% to 42%), illustrating both China’s role in AI development and the risks posed by U.S.-China trade tensions, which could limit technology trade or access to key materials.

• OpenAI has unveiled a five-year investment plan worth over $1 trillion, aimed at developing advanced AI infrastructure and expanding its products and services. The strategy includes new revenue streams, tools for businesses and e-commerce, autonomous AI agents, and video-generation technologies, supported by partnerships with AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Oracle, including agreements for 10 GW of computing power and $300 billion in data centers, as well as the global Stargate project. OpenAI expects revenues to reach up to $13 billion and projects growth in ChatGPT subscribers.