- Equity index futures moved higher while oil prices eased after The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump had told aides he may be prepared to pause the US military campaign against Iran—even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed. The conflict itself is ongoing, however, with overnight reports pointing to a significant strike on underground Iranian missile storage facilities near Isfahan, followed by a series of major explosions.
- Futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed 0.8%, while European contracts added 0.3%, reflecting growing investor expectations of a gradual easing in geopolitical tensions. The rebound in Asian markets proved short-lived. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ultimately fell 1%, putting it on track for its weakest monthly performance since October 2008. Semiconductor stocks were among the hardest hit.
- Amid hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, West Texas Intermediate crude erased earlier gains and traded roughly flat at around $103 per barrel, after previously rising to near $107. US Treasuries extended their rally, while the dollar weakened against most G10 currencies.
- After a month of conflict, Iran appears to have secured a meaningful strategic advantage by maintaining control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In March, only about six vessels per day passed through the narrow route connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, compared with roughly 135 daily under normal conditions.
- US Treasury yields declined following the WSJ report, with the 10-year yield falling two basis points to 4.33%. Bond prices had already been supported on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed near-term inflation risks linked to higher energy costs.
- From the macro side NBS PMI data from China showed better than expected results in both: manufacturing (50.4 vs 50.1 exp. and 49 previously) and non-manufacturing (50.1 vs 49.9 exp. and 49.5 previously). Japanese housing starts fell by -4.9% MoM vs -4.5% exp. and -0.4% previously.
Source: xStation5
After Iran War: Markets and Prices
Market wrap: Cautious optimism in Europe, inflation higher but below expectations
Chart of the day: US100 jumps 1% amid rising Middle East de-escalation hopes (31.03.2026)
Daily Summary: Trump, Inflation, Threats, and Persian Gulf Tensions Cast a Shadow Over Wall Street
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