Market Wrap: Cautious rebound in Europe after the drop in oil prices

• European indices started Tuesday’s session higher, supported by a clear decline in oil prices and moderate gains in technology stocks. Germany is leading gains in Europe today, also helped by positive macroeconomic data, with DAX futures up around 0.7%.
  • The positive tone in Europe is reinforced by US futures. US100 is up about 0.7% ahead of the open.

• The main market driver was another 2.5% drop in Brent crude. The commodity is now around USD 88 per barrel, compared with USD 95 just a week ago. The fall in oil prices eased concerns about inflation reaccelerating and brought relief to the bond market.
• Oil prices themselves are falling due to a partial reduction in the geopolitical premium. New actions by the US administration toward Iran have not resulted in any material tightening of restrictions or the expected secondary sanctions (yet). Meanwhile, reports of a possible return of US diplomats to posts in the Middle East were taken as a signal that Washington does not expect a rapid resumption or escalation of the conflict.

Company news

• By sector, industrials and the travel and leisure segment performed best, with the latter gaining about 1.5%. This second group benefited directly from lower fuel prices. The leader here is Kion Group, up around 5%.
• In the broader market, semiconductor makers are rebounding ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. ASML (ASML.NL) and Infineon are up about 2%.
• Melrose Industries (MRO.UK): An update regarding Garden Grove reduced uncertainty around the impact of the May incident on production and the company’s obligations. Shares are up as much as 10%.
• Siemens Energy (ENR.DE): The German group is higher after a report that CVC and EQT may be interested in a majority stake in the steam turbine business. Siemens Energy reportedly hired Goldman Sachs, and the structure under consideration assumes the sale of around 60% of the unit.
• Volkswagen (VOW1.DE): More than 10,000 employees gathered in Wolfsburg ahead of the presentation of a restructuring plan. According to the works council, as many as 140,000 jobs could be at risk in total, although Volkswagen has not confirmed that figure. Management points to high costs, excess production capacity, US tariffs and competition from Chinese manufacturers as the main pressures on the company. Shares are down around 1%.
• Marks & Spencer (MKS.UK): The company is expanding its logistics cooperation with Zalando to 22 European markets. The solution is intended to speed up deliveries and returns and cut logistics costs by as much as half. Shares are up about 2%.
• Vistry Group (VTY.UK): The UK developer received GBP 350 million in financing under a social housing program. The funds are to support the construction of more than 3,000 homes. The stock is up more than 15%.

Macroeconomic data

• Economic growth in Germany came in above expectations. German GDP growth in Q2 2026 (seasonally adjusted) reached 0.3%. Without seasonal adjustment, growth was 1% versus an expected 0.9% (previously 0.8%).
• The IFO institute published the business climate index, which rose significantly above expectations to 88.8, the highest level in two years. The expectations subindex increased to 89.1 from 86.8, and the current assessment rose to 88.5 from 86.5.

Forex

• Currency market volatility is limited ahead of the Jackson Hole speech. NZD and AUD stand out in terms of the move, strengthening by about 0.1% to 0.2% against the US dollar. The yen is down about 0.1% again, while the pound, franc and euro are unchanged.

Crypto

• The crypto market is recovering part of yesterday’s losses in smaller tokens. Larger currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding modest gains limited to 0.5%.
  • Bitcoin remains above USD 78,000.
  • Solana is up more than 1% to USD 98.
  • Ethereum is slightly lower, falling to USD 2,477.